tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post3774884197381109989..comments2024-03-28T07:17:13.573-05:00Comments on Clark Street Value: KLX Inc: Boeing Merger, KLX Energy Services SpinMDChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-33120041687383640952019-04-04T14:03:44.253-05:002019-04-04T14:03:44.253-05:00I still own it and agree that it's very cheap ...I still own it and agree that it's very cheap here, don't really have any other intelligent thoughts other than I assume it follows the same Amin Khoury playbook: rollup and then sell.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-70190681217209948032019-04-04T12:28:21.367-05:002019-04-04T12:28:21.367-05:00Just wondering if you,ve taken a fresh look at thi...Just wondering if you,ve taken a fresh look at this. If they hit their 2019 EBITDA guidance of $200 million it's very cheap here at $25-26.BCoakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09526039776322754370noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-9777796572903069082018-12-07T05:43:50.768-06:002018-12-07T05:43:50.768-06:00I'd assume management has another acquisition ...I'd assume management has another acquisition target in mind, thus the extra cash, but it's certainly expensive paper to just be sitting in the bank.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-81510477837347805212018-12-06T17:34:42.677-06:002018-12-06T17:34:42.677-06:00I'm in your camp, but people still need to eat...I'm in your camp, but people still need to eat even in a recession, so maybe the same applies for oil and gas? Plus, nat. gas prices are a lot higher. I emailed the company about the acquisition--such high rates and excess cash and was a head scratcher. I'm hopeful they respond.BAlukoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14492585002041677982noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-81430032072183708372018-12-05T09:04:33.516-06:002018-12-05T09:04:33.516-06:00Thanks - makes sense on becoming stickier by addin...Thanks - makes sense on becoming stickier by adding more services.<br /><br />I'm surprised (obviously in a good way) by the 2019 guidance today, $190MM in EBITDA - $60MM in FCF, hard to square the increase with falling oil prices, feels a bit promotional. I continue to just keep a small position.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-36210545906738820632018-12-04T22:15:52.609-06:002018-12-04T22:15:52.609-06:00Just thought I would jump in on this discussion as...Just thought I would jump in on this discussion as I have been reading your blog for a while. <br /><br />If you talk with those in the industry customers prefer an all in one shop so acquiring an additional service makes sense to me. Further, if potential acquires know they are waiting around by not making any moves it would not present one with the best bargaining chip.<br /><br />The interesting issue is that the issued notes are paying 11.5% due to their speculative rating (however, such a low rating appears to be given for the same reasons for the low valuation - messy financial and short operating history). It will be interesting to hear their commentary on expected return/synergies on Motley.<br /><br />I am not a holder personally but looking with interest. Maisehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04756768259729559995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-6046621493037527332018-11-30T10:53:17.741-06:002018-11-30T10:53:17.741-06:00I haven't had a chance to look at it yet, seem...I haven't had a chance to look at it yet, seem interesting?MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-58311776215247877082018-11-28T13:13:26.164-06:002018-11-28T13:13:26.164-06:00Any thoughts on the KAR/IAC spin? Any thoughts on the KAR/IAC spin? ZHX523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-480020449706783262018-11-26T13:16:46.947-06:002018-11-26T13:16:46.947-06:00I'm also concerned about their guidance, was a...I'm also concerned about their guidance, was a little surprised that their Q3 results came in on track and that they didn't miss guidance as some of their peers had taken down guidance prior to releasing results. I don't love the Motley acquisition on the surface, haven't really investigated beyond the press release but I'm thinking similar to you, why take on the expensive debt and do an acquisition if the plan was to sell it soon? So maybe that thesis is on hold for now, but I still think the incentives are attractive here and in place for a sale, just might be pushed out so they could do a couple more acquisitions.<br /><br />My numbers match yours, I'm still holding a small position as a result of the spin, but I'm concerned about the business, had several people reach out to me and tell me its a low quality business. I assume the $152MM EBITDA will need to come down, question is how much so in 2019? Probably a lot to where their multiple is really 7x like peers, so like ~$85MM? I'm admittedly just a tourist and interested in the event/incentive side of things, maybe others can chime in.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-48943515267348624382018-11-26T08:20:26.520-06:002018-11-26T08:20:26.520-06:00Hey MDC,
Any new thoughts on the recent sell off ...Hey MDC,<br /><br />Any new thoughts on the recent sell off of KLXE, their recent acquisitions, and bear market in oil?<br /><br />Looks like they're being valued at 3.7x of projected Adj EBITDA of $152 with their Motley acquisition. Pretty cheap relative to their competitors with an average ttm 7x EBITDA. I think their acquisition is solid as it was bought cheaply and immediately accretive to their earnings...but if they were planning on selling off KLXE in the near future why take on some debt and make the acquisition?<br /><br />The other thing that concerns me is the recent bear market in oil. I think a large part of KLXE's guidance is hinged on increased CAPEX within the oil/shale industry but with oil prices heading below $50/barrel, there is a possibility that KLXE might not meet their guidance....<br /><br />My PT is in the low $30's at a conservative 4.75x - 5x Adj EBITDA assuming they hit their $152 Adj EBITDA guidance. Your thoughts?ZHX523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-55289522263069484212018-10-04T17:22:17.180-05:002018-10-04T17:22:17.180-05:00GTX is interesting to me, tiny in comparison to HO...GTX is interesting to me, tiny in comparison to HON, asbestos liabilities might look uglier than they turn out to be and I'm someone who thinks mass adoption of EV and automated cars is still a ways away. It's certainly cheap, I've been meaning to dig in deeper, but just haven't had the time recently.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-62882087205130516442018-10-02T09:22:55.693-05:002018-10-02T09:22:55.693-05:00any thoughts yet? any thoughts yet? McLovinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01952699575412856260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-89239170762778976662018-09-18T14:18:07.890-05:002018-09-18T14:18:07.890-05:00No new thoughts, I'm sitting with a small posi...No new thoughts, I'm sitting with a small position too, waiting to see if it gets sold off as people see it in their account before adding to it. If it doesn't sell off, I might just be okay holding the small stub and seeing what happens as I like the incentives more than the business itself.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-41717756369354855452018-09-18T13:55:26.766-05:002018-09-18T13:55:26.766-05:00Any thoughts on value here? I have a small positi...Any thoughts on value here? I have a small position. Stock is trading a little less than 6X the $110 EBITDA forecastmhbladeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08535033690096270812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-62071610442776707362018-09-17T13:49:31.622-05:002018-09-17T13:49:31.622-05:00The exchange ratio, wasn't known when I wrote ...The exchange ratio, wasn't known when I wrote this, but each KLXI shareholder received 0.40 shares of KLXE for each KLXI.<br /><br />I don't know if I assumed it, or read it somewhere and its changed, but the deal with Boeing is still pending, now until "early in Q4", so KLXI is now just the ASG business that Boeing is buying for $63. I presumed the spin and the merger would happen at the same time.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-22453967800432915522018-09-17T13:38:16.348-05:002018-09-17T13:38:16.348-05:00You are missing something.You are missing something.writserhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04755781938953507727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-59854667012557313292018-09-17T13:34:53.270-05:002018-09-17T13:34:53.270-05:00Am I missing something here or did this start trad...Am I missing something here or did this start trading at around $28/share today? Almost 3x the implied value pre-spin?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-67046475761189197802018-09-07T16:48:00.233-05:002018-09-07T16:48:00.233-05:00Just announced that KXLI deleted from the 400 but ...Just announced that KXLI deleted from the 400 but bit shocked that they are adding this KLXEV to the 600 as well. So will be some forced selling and some forced buying as well. Interesting to see how it all plays out. vvm51https://www.blogger.com/profile/14905470385499847342noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-15651936906273602112018-08-29T14:23:29.083-05:002018-08-29T14:23:29.083-05:00http://investor.klx.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=253840&...http://investor.klx.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=253840&p=RssLanding&cat=news&id=2365002<br /><br />Mr. Khoury commented, “Today, we are confirming our 2018 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance for KLX Energy Services of approximately $500 million and approximately $110 million, respectively.”MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-27356508063035960522018-08-29T14:21:36.660-05:002018-08-29T14:21:36.660-05:00Haven't gotten to that one yet, started with R...Haven't gotten to that one yet, started with Resideo, but I'll get to it, interesting structure with HON offloading these ongoing liabilities onto the spinoffs.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-58929213075804565042018-08-28T22:36:53.765-05:002018-08-28T22:36:53.765-05:00You can already see the path to the HoN auto biz s...You can already see the path to the HoN auto biz splitting up again in a few years. McLovinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01952699575412856260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-49587094156981682212018-08-13T15:54:44.646-05:002018-08-13T15:54:44.646-05:00Someone else asked that in comments of my Perspect...Someone else asked that in comments of my Perspecta post, I read through the Form 10 and it sounds interesting, very growth oriented, but so far struggling with why the business is being spun off in the first place? Doesn't initially strike me as a different business model that should be run separately for the typical reasons, but I want to spend more time on it.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-45429224536315395402018-08-13T14:59:56.136-05:002018-08-13T14:59:56.136-05:00Off topic...but have u looked into the servicemast...Off topic...but have u looked into the servicemaster spin ? they filed the prospectus recently Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-37398879643900206682018-08-09T10:22:51.230-05:002018-08-09T10:22:51.230-05:00I got into RVRA yesterday. It's currently trad...I got into RVRA yesterday. It's currently trading at $24 vs my fair value estimate of at least $30/share. I value Blue Mountain at 10x midpoint EBITDA ($1.125B) and value mature assets at $1B plus $260mm in cash. BM's capex is projected to go down from $120mm this year to $23mm next year, debt-free BS, possible uplisting, shareholder friendly management with Elliott representative on the board. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-51046779850048571762018-08-08T11:03:55.140-05:002018-08-08T11:03:55.140-05:00I wouldn't say I'm confident its suddenly ...I wouldn't say I'm confident its suddenly worth a lot more, but management sure seems to think so? I'm more following the incentives here, I think they'll try to sell it again in the next 6-24 months once they have a full twelve months of good results behind them. As I tried to point out and others did too, probably best to just wait for the spinoff to happen, less capital committed and maybe you get some forced index selling.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.com