tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post4127646585255499886..comments2024-03-28T07:17:13.573-05:00Comments on Clark Street Value: Bally's Corp: Standard General Go-Private OfferMDChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-38095480672018603232024-03-18T16:04:30.785-05:002024-03-18T16:04:30.785-05:00Same, kicking it around a bit, but not sure I'...Same, kicking it around a bit, but not sure I'll fall for the fake bid twice.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-44938706447441000632024-03-18T12:52:20.313-05:002024-03-18T12:52:20.313-05:00Im having dejavu with this name Im having dejavu with this name Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-55864107285736608772022-06-24T08:43:38.158-05:002022-06-24T08:43:38.158-05:00Probably not, but I need to think about it more in...Probably not, but I need to think about it more in relation to my other ideas.<br /><br />More interestingly, they posted an 8-K with their 3 year cash flow plans including the Chicago build out:<br /><br />https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1747079/000110465922074117/tm2219368d1_ex99-1.htmMDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-90963054900030487952022-06-24T07:07:37.394-05:002022-06-24T07:07:37.394-05:00https://investors.ballys.com/news/news-details/202...https://investors.ballys.com/news/news-details/2022/Ballys-Commences-Modified-Dutch-Auction-Tender-Offer-To-Purchase-Up-To-190-Million-Of-Its-Outstanding-Common-Shares/default.aspx<br /><br />Interesting little buyback scheme! I like it. Will you be placing an offer? What do you think about it?Finn Teckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08623863959913275044noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-63440448592616735602022-05-11T08:29:32.712-05:002022-05-11T08:29:32.712-05:00It kind of depends on your view of how high rates ...It kind of depends on your view of how high rates are going to go? I probably land on the side that inflation will retreat sooner than later given all the destruction of capital and demand happening. Bally's current term loan is LIBOR + 325. They also have a lot of embedded real estate value and committed partner in GLPI. I'm not particularly worried, do find the situation quite interesting now that they could really shrink the float substantially if insiders don't tender, this would be a public LBO essentially.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-1717258739926323562022-05-11T07:18:14.592-05:002022-05-11T07:18:14.592-05:00MDC, any comment about risk of interest rate on th...MDC, any comment about risk of interest rate on the company? Making such a huge tender offer with all-ready leverage balance sheet seems wired. any thought about how you look at this?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-1786557486420989662022-05-09T08:54:29.624-05:002022-05-09T08:54:29.624-05:00I said in the post that I'm content owning the...I said in the post that I'm content owning the business if the buyout offer didn't go through, meant that, think it has some upside as all the pieces come together. If it was just a quick trade for you, the company will be doing a tender offer, probably lets most of the speculation arbitrage buyers out at a decent price.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-11892345016557325372022-05-09T04:56:03.617-05:002022-05-09T04:56:03.617-05:00From earnings Call.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/...From earnings Call. <br />https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001747079/000174707922000069/ex991-excerptedtranscripto.htm<br />I saw this company as a quick-term trade, but with all debt and the actual interest rate hikes make me feel a bit unconfortable. <br />Im wondering how much will increase margins in the mid term.<br /><br />PD: Sorry for my english.FMOhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13810653299184402059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-87979887373421466392022-05-05T09:59:52.755-05:002022-05-05T09:59:52.755-05:00And now selected for the Chicago casino. That loc...And now selected for the Chicago casino. That location is incredible for a casino, on the river, near nightlife, its the old Tribune distribution center for those familiar with the city.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-40696833920727038412022-05-05T08:31:22.348-05:002022-05-05T08:31:22.348-05:00The tender is potentially pretty big, depending wh...The tender is potentially pretty big, depending who tenders their shares, could really take out a lot of the free float. Halfway to a public LBO type situation.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-53872537588948511352022-05-05T08:19:39.023-05:002022-05-05T08:19:39.023-05:00Special committee of directors reject the Standard...Special committee of directors reject the Standard General's bid to take private at $38/sh.<br />"Bally’s simultaneously announced that its board of directors determined that Bally’s should pursue initiating a cash tender offer for its shares. It is anticipated that the tender offer will involve $300 million to $500 million, and will be structured in a Dutch auction format. The commencement of the offer is subject to, among other things, obtaining necessary financing and final approval by Bally’s board."<br /><br />Any take on the dutch auction/rejection?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-3304692023182356632022-05-05T08:14:20.456-05:002022-05-05T08:14:20.456-05:00Terminating talks with Standard General, doing a D...Terminating talks with Standard General, doing a Dutch tender instead.<br /><br />I'll continue to hold -- like the management team, growth opportunities, etc.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-72786671539617156862022-04-24T15:49:09.787-05:002022-04-24T15:49:09.787-05:00Thanks for the kind words and good thoughts here. ...Thanks for the kind words and good thoughts here. I agree with many of your points but if you also look at the numbers, casinos are well ahead of 2019 numbers, going off of memory, but many of them are up 20-30%, so Americans have a lot of gamble in them.<br /><br />And don't knock the "one armed bandits in every gas station and truck stop" (I might steal that one), I own ACEL.<br /><br />I do agree that I doubt if people care that much if they place a sports bet on Draft Kings versus Caesars versus Bally's. Sports betting was historically a low margin business, likely still is, usually is placed in a back corner of the casino for a reason, it is a draw but not the money maker. That's partially why I like BALY's strategy, they're not as aggressive on the sports gambling side, bought Gamesys which is iCasino first, plus they have the physical casinos, I can see an argument for the iCasino being a good marketing tool/funnel for the physical side.<br /><br />Thanks for the thoughtful comment.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-2239926300032136582022-04-24T00:10:05.811-05:002022-04-24T00:10:05.811-05:00Love your blog.
I wonder about these mobile gamin...Love your blog.<br /><br />I wonder about these mobile gaming apps. The thing that made casinos so damned profitable the past 70 years was the exclusivity. There was little competition. Vegas, Atlantic City, the horse tracks and state lotteries, keno, &c. Otherwise you were relegated mostly to bingo halls or poker home games.<br /><br />It's hard to see how the mobile apps become a winner take all situation. If they don't, what prevents competition from turning them all into low margin commodities? Does a gambler care if they place the Steelers bet on Draft Kings, Bet Rivers, FanDuel, BetMGM or any of a dozen others? Or do they care which one is offering the best odds on the spread?<br /><br />Today we've got one armed bandits in every gas station and truck stop in the Dakotas, tribal casinos blanketing dozens of states, and even fully commercial ventures in major cities like Detroit/Windsor. The American Gaming Association (2020) says there are 987 casinos in 42 states, not including small venues. In that case, the number exceeds 2,000. If I drive 45 minutes in 3 of the 4 cardinal directions, I pass a casino.<br /><br />On top of this every major casino is competing for mobile sports book and gambling revenues alongside some venture players. On antenna TV when I catch the evening news, bob's burgers, or some bad 90's movie, it's probably close to 1 out of every 5 commercials.<br /><br />Wampum (Mitchell) is a great book on the history of the tribal gaming industry, if you ever get the itch. I use tribal liberally, as there are truly weak arguments for some of these designations. Mysterious how often these tribal lands happen to be so conveniently located next to large population centers with disposable income and good freeway access.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-66675591808655014542022-04-10T13:54:47.443-05:002022-04-10T13:54:47.443-05:00I'm not following the situation closely so ple...I'm not following the situation closely so please correct me if I'm wrong but given the potential to fund the vast majority of the transaction through SLBs, wouldn't the only interest rate risk be on the bridge financing?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-24959795269236101842022-04-10T01:32:49.824-05:002022-04-10T01:32:49.824-05:00The pricing action here both interests & worri...The pricing action here both interests & worries me. Are the arbs / speculators heading for the exits or is the general higher interest rate environment & recession talk dampening gaming stocks more generally? Paddyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09859079149879236244noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-76016957249169201692022-03-12T21:42:27.102-06:002022-03-12T21:42:27.102-06:00Probably just broader market activity, all the gam...Probably just broader market activity, all the gaming names traded down recently, I try not to read too much into these things.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-3535622799906718682022-03-12T11:52:53.678-06:002022-03-12T11:52:53.678-06:00What is your opinion of the recent price action wi...What is your opinion of the recent price action with BALY? The price previously returned to the $35-$36 range within a day after the morning selloff in reaction to the Q4 earnings release. So why now is such a large spread opening up between the share price and SG offer price? I have been unable to dig up any news pertinent to the offer or either entity. Does SG have some major exposure to Russian markets which could jeopardize their offer? Or do you think this is simply a result of the broader market activity and is thus a good opportunity to expand the position?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-90447307685711283882022-02-21T10:45:34.339-06:002022-02-21T10:45:34.339-06:00Gamesys stand-alone always traded at <7x EBITDA...Gamesys stand-alone always traded at <7x EBITDA due to large Japan (grey market exposure)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04514665843702665498noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-5458873323816021122022-02-17T18:55:22.931-06:002022-02-17T18:55:22.931-06:00Thank you Thank you Anonymouse Squeaknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-58759045354008682982022-02-17T10:46:50.181-06:002022-02-17T10:46:50.181-06:00That's about where regional casinos have trade...That's about where regional casinos have traded historically and gives no credit to the iCasino/OSG opportunity in the U.S., plus now it's potentially in play, someone could argue a strategic would have synergies on top of that. They do still own some of their real estate which they could sell for a much higher multiple.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-48982783113268288132022-02-17T10:32:20.372-06:002022-02-17T10:32:20.372-06:00Why is 9.4x EBITDA cheap? Why is 9.4x EBITDA cheap? Anonymouse Squeaknoreply@blogger.com