tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post4380943174154214526..comments2024-03-28T07:17:13.573-05:00Comments on Clark Street Value: CorePoint Lodging: Form 10 NotesMDChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-69179093612075909862019-08-19T09:38:49.295-05:002019-08-19T09:38:49.295-05:00I also wonder if the potential WH management defau...I also wonder if the potential WH management default can be used to reset the agreement closer to market?MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-1793767845366605202019-08-19T09:31:19.939-05:002019-08-19T09:31:19.939-05:00It certainly keeps getting cheaper, book value is ...It certainly keeps getting cheaper, book value is around $20/share and the hotels they've sold have been at a slight premium to book. Not saying book is perfect, but little chance that these sales are cherry picked since they're selling off their less desirable assets. I don't want to average down anymore, just holding at this point. MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-51645949852710790182019-08-16T16:51:40.129-05:002019-08-16T16:51:40.129-05:00any updates on CPLG? Looks cheaper today...any updates on CPLG? Looks cheaper today...Keshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08395014145104013040noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-21785123906706694202019-03-29T09:29:07.526-05:002019-03-29T09:29:07.526-05:00Thanks a lot for your answer. I have same thoughts...Thanks a lot for your answer. I have same thoughts even i entered in the deal quite later.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03317327222759824733noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-74811248817298007152019-03-29T07:58:32.106-05:002019-03-29T07:58:32.106-05:00I think selling hotels makes sense, they're wo...I think selling hotels makes sense, they're worth a lot more to private buyers than inside of the public REIT wrapper, but that process will take some time. I'm still holding, but not excited enough to add, would like to see some progress and gain a little faith back in management before throwing anymore good money after bad.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-86488105506891280592019-03-29T03:42:16.065-05:002019-03-29T03:42:16.065-05:00And book value will be recognizedAnd book value will be recognizedAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03317327222759824733noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-25047568925264942972019-03-29T03:41:02.933-05:002019-03-29T03:41:02.933-05:00What do you think about current perspectives of th...What do you think about current perspectives of the business? Of course, upside isn't looking such compelling, but maybe sale of non-core hotels will improve their margins and debt position.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03317327222759824733noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-48073854796969221592019-03-22T11:30:17.163-05:002019-03-22T11:30:17.163-05:00I'm looking dead wrong here, the hotels outsid...I'm looking dead wrong here, the hotels outside of the renovation program are performing poorly which tells you the growth capex is really maintenance capex. It also appears this spin wasn't fully prepared for life as a public company, management has had a hard time articulating their strategy/guidance in the beginning, now putting about 25% of their hotels up for sale and taking an impairment charge.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-7828681372191274132019-01-22T08:53:08.965-06:002019-01-22T08:53:08.965-06:00Stock looks cheap but would like to see them perfo...Stock looks cheap but would like to see them perform better<br />Shaqer23https://www.blogger.com/profile/01187828710703304957noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-8681295324040361542019-01-21T13:23:31.508-06:002019-01-21T13:23:31.508-06:00The maintenance capex is the big question here, wh...The maintenance capex is the big question here, when I spoke with IR they told me 5% of revenues, but that contradicts with what's in the form 10, their response to that was the form 10 included some growth capex but its not worded that way.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-27327389985119950892019-01-21T10:50:26.124-06:002019-01-21T10:50:26.124-06:00Any thoughts since the last quarter. I spent some ...Any thoughts since the last quarter. I spent some time on this and struggle with their cost structure, WH integration and execution. Question for me is what is FCF and related to that true cap ex. Thanks.Shaqer23https://www.blogger.com/profile/01187828710703304957noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-44229466052780701342018-10-22T09:44:08.756-05:002018-10-22T09:44:08.756-05:00Appreciate the update! I bought some options pre-...Appreciate the update! I bought some options pre-spin, then exercised for CPLG b/c I couldn't see reason for the stock's punishment.mhbladeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08535033690096270812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-82506170645376007212018-10-19T12:59:26.003-05:002018-10-19T12:59:26.003-05:00I started to write a new post on CPLG, but realize...I started to write a new post on CPLG, but realized it was all going to be a rehash of what I wrote here in April, so instead of spamming everyone, here are some updated thoughts to those still interested in the company:<br /><br />Adjusted for the impact of the 2017 hurricanes, CPLG's EBITDA run-rate is $195-209 for 2018. Most REITs are forecasting high single digit to low single digit EBITDA growth for 2019, CPLG should be in that range too: 1) all but one of the hurricane impacted hotels should be operational by the end of 2018 (several are back since 6/30); 2) substantially all of the repositioning program will be completed by the end of 2018 where they've seen 20% increase in daily rates; 3) oil prices remain strong benefiting their Texas market concentration.<br /><br />CPLG has debt of $1.035B (CMBS) and $55MM of cash (ignoring the tax escrow and pending insurance proceeds) and a market cap of $1B, so EV is $1.97B, at that mid-point hurricane adjusted EBITDA of $200MM, its trading less 10x 2018 EBITDA. The entire sector trades for 12+ times forward EBITDA (again, most forecasting a healthy increase over 2018), so its clearly cheap on its face.<br /><br />JPM put out a downgrade note this week, two drivers of their downgrade: 1) They were forecasting $187MM in EBITDA for 2019 which seems extremely punitive and without any real back up, in fact it reads like they're lapping hurricane comparables in a negative way, not a positive way, which was confusing; 2) They hit on one-brand risk, I disagree that this is a major risk, lodging REITs aren't taking the credit exposure of the flag they're flying (unlike many of the REIT spins of the recent past) and La Quinta isn't Papa Johns or other franchise concepts where the brand is directly associated with a person or trend. Hotels often change brands anyway, its more about location, to me listing the single brand risk as a reason for the discount seems lazy.<br /><br />What's it worth? I still think around $28, don't think the story has changed post earnings much, in one of the earlier comments I thought there was some risk to 2018 as the hurricane damaged hotels were out of service for more time in 2018 compared to 2017. Let's say CPLG can do $220MM in EBITDA in 2019, peer multiple on that is $28-29. And again, its a taxable spin, really should be consolidated with a larger peer, they have $20MM in SG&A costs that's waiting to be eliminated that would make this deal attractive to a buyer.<br /><br />I bought CPLG shares in the last week, about a $17.50 cost basis.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-26940319170970447952018-10-04T17:20:37.410-05:002018-10-04T17:20:37.410-05:00I haven't had many new ideas recently, but I d...I haven't had many new ideas recently, but I do like CPLG here, I think last quarter was essentially in line with where expectations should have been, my concern was around 2018 numbers and the lack of guidance heading into the spin, still believe this is a 2019 story once last year's hurricane impact is mitigated and the capex project is completed. I bought some calls as mentioned above, that was probably another bad decision, but I like the stock here, might just be simple and buy.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-85578262150831837322018-10-04T15:21:45.005-05:002018-10-04T15:21:45.005-05:00Any thoughts on CPLG at ~$19?Any thoughts on CPLG at ~$19?Dave Ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06197754376138046678noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-33874386449551388112018-08-21T21:19:32.637-05:002018-08-21T21:19:32.637-05:00I bought some January calls, might be dumb, should...I bought some January calls, might be dumb, should have waited for longer dated strikes to start trading, but yes, seems like an overreaction to me.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-30069686073132217802018-08-15T22:08:31.277-05:002018-08-15T22:08:31.277-05:00That’s where I’m shaking out also though I’m surpr...That’s where I’m shaking out also though I’m surprised given the incen I’ve they had to keep it low into the spin they’d effectively disappoint on this call. That said there was so much noise in the report and so little coverage in general volatility is to be expected McLovinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01952699575412856260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-73995994298292839062018-08-15T11:38:01.817-05:002018-08-15T11:38:01.817-05:00I think it looks interesting again, I thought 2018...I think it looks interesting again, I thought 2018 numbers could be rough and that it's really a 2019 guidance story once the major capex project and hurricane repairs are complete. If you add back the hurricane impact, they're looking roughly flat year over year, so not as terrible as it might look on the surface. I'm thinking about re-entering, just makes too much sense for these guys to get taken out at some point.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-26116356668450907842018-08-15T11:05:44.372-05:002018-08-15T11:05:44.372-05:00any thoughts post the print and sell off? any thoughts post the print and sell off? McLovinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01952699575412856260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-34298195083328053862018-06-05T08:13:29.098-05:002018-06-05T08:13:29.098-05:00Thank you, and I did receive my cash this morning....Thank you, and I did receive my cash this morning.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-39757407272666233222018-06-04T22:44:59.953-05:002018-06-04T22:44:59.953-05:00Did everyone receive the $8.40 per share in cash? ...Did everyone receive the $8.40 per share in cash? I thought it was supposed to happen when CPLG spun off but I haven’t yet received the cash and was wondering if I missed something. Any insight would be greatly appreciated. <br /><br />@MDC - thanks for all you’ve given to this community and for all your insights!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-88748492837512724702018-06-01T09:22:06.247-05:002018-06-01T09:22:06.247-05:00I sold today at $28 which was my price target here...I sold today at $28 which was my price target here and back in January. Might revisit if longer dated options start trading on it soon as a way to hedge against remorse if this gets bought out soon.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-58423740811129926032018-05-24T14:45:59.921-05:002018-05-24T14:45:59.921-05:00Another positive tidbit, the current LQ CEO and CO...Another positive tidbit, the current LQ CEO and COO along with many other current LQ directors will be siding with the spinoff...may play into the efforts to depress the price Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-32443409864871333282018-05-22T08:40:51.951-05:002018-05-22T08:40:51.951-05:00Another interesting anecdote - In both the Q1 2018...Another interesting anecdote - In both the Q1 2018 and Q4 2017 earnings calls no analyst questions were allowed. That is despite the fact that the Q&A part in Q3 2017 was very active.<br /><br />Made me wonder if that is also a part of management's efforts to depress the price.DeepValuehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11490962109594476534noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-3734281440893660112018-05-09T08:09:33.159-05:002018-05-09T08:09:33.159-05:00That's fair. I'm also a little nervous ab...That's fair. I'm also a little nervous about full year 2018 numbers, they're going to be a little rough and noisy, is that market going to look through that to 2019? Not sure, might create a short term trading opportunity too.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.com