tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post5140712448787025361..comments2024-03-28T07:17:13.573-05:00Comments on Clark Street Value: Hilton Worldwide: Management Co, Hotel REIT, Timeshare BusinessMDChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-39452038217261284132017-01-23T08:34:27.014-06:002017-01-23T08:34:27.014-06:00PK seems about fairly valued to me now, but I have...PK seems about fairly valued to me now, but I have a bias against the hotel REIT business model. <br /><br />I still haven't done anything with HGV, maybe that's a mistake, but I've just been sitting on my hands for the most part, trying to practice more patience.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-69421981757942257542017-01-20T10:28:58.693-06:002017-01-20T10:28:58.693-06:00What do you think about PK now that it has sold of...What do you think about PK now that it has sold off and is around the $26 level? How are things playing out with HGV for you?Benjaminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06132244268417121057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-73422588046666197492017-01-06T07:37:24.812-06:002017-01-06T07:37:24.812-06:00HGV is the one I'm following closely, trying t...HGV is the one I'm following closely, trying to be patient and let the shareholder rotation happen and not jump in too quickly. I think the timeshare business is underrated and not as cyclical as it appears, might end up swapping ILG for HGV as HGV is simpler and more capital light than ILG.<br /><br />I don't love PK, don't hate it either, hotel REITs are a lot more cyclical than other REITs, plus they're paying out a big cut of both their revenues and profits to HLT. Then I haven't seen this talked about much, but if corporate tax rates do come down significantly and personal rates come down a smaller amount (which is how the proposals I've seen look) then the tax advantage of being REIT also comes down as well since you're paying unqualified dividend rates. You've got a franchisee type business with this great tax structure that other franchisee businesses (like a McDonald's franchisee) don't enjoy, but that tax structure might get nerfed by lower corporate taxes soon.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-47086096253811234852017-01-05T17:52:02.335-06:002017-01-05T17:52:02.335-06:00If HGV sells off, do you anticipate taking a posit...If HGV sells off, do you anticipate taking a position? Unfortunately, I went in a bit early on the PK business and it tanked today. Do you see more downside coming? Is there anything in particular that scares you about PK, or do you just like HGV and HLT more?Benjaminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06132244268417121057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-11578923346020688652017-01-04T13:52:06.059-06:002017-01-04T13:52:06.059-06:00I'm still most interested in HGV, holding up r...I'm still most interested in HGV, holding up right now, but I'm curious if it'll get sold off (small size relative to HLT, timeshare business, etc), but otherwise I'm just sitting on my hands. I don't like the PK business, and HLT seems interesting to me if I could get around the valuation. In their investor deck at the analyst day they basically laid out a plan to grow hotel count by a third while shrinking sharecount by a third over the next few years, that's a powerful combination.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-9730380143554737982017-01-04T12:02:12.749-06:002017-01-04T12:02:12.749-06:00What do you think of PK, HGV, and HLT now that the...What do you think of PK, HGV, and HLT now that the spin off has occurred? Which is most attractive to you right now?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-68008772834039549872016-12-27T10:16:42.244-06:002016-12-27T10:16:42.244-06:00I misspoke - Take a look at GAIA. It has a lot of...I misspoke - Take a look at GAIA. It has a lot of upside potential and is a microcap, which by definition is where multibaggers reside. High insider ownership. Would love to hear your thoughts. I dont expect it to go up at a 45 degree angle - there will be ups and downs and hiccups along the way.no namehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01180488577665672291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-82346815993843634792016-12-27T09:48:08.335-06:002016-12-27T09:48:08.335-06:00Thanks. I don't at the moment but I promise t...Thanks. I don't at the moment but I promise to share if and when I do (we always do eventually, don't we?). <br /><br />I am a little intrigued by LOV which has been a disaster for many years and I saw it was written up in NYT this past weekend (what made me think about it again..). It has been an activist play as well. I notice that it's been burning cash which makes me less interested but still worth a looksie.<br /><br />The two worst performing sectors in 2016 are energy (though up hugely from bottom) and healthcare. I wont touch HC because its mostly biotechs which I have zero comfort in. So energy may be the place to look. <br /><br />The worst performers in 2016, not surprisingly, are almost all in those two sectors.<br /><br />But the market is very generous - it always provides opps as long as one is patient.<br /><br />Best to you in 2017.no namehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01180488577665672291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-5476969016252850112016-12-27T09:34:40.843-06:002016-12-27T09:34:40.843-06:00I'd probably also throw RSO on there, not a mu...I'd probably also throw RSO on there, not a multibagger, but a one bagger in 1-2 years.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-27597418959972024142016-12-27T09:25:28.557-06:002016-12-27T09:25:28.557-06:00STAR is probably the only thing I own where a mult...STAR is probably the only thing I own where a multibagger is a more than likely and it might be more in the 3-4 year time horizon. There's a lot of embedded value in there that's not showing up, but it'll take time, won't be a quick transformation back to a normal looking REIT. <br /><br />Otherwise, one or two of the microcap spinoffs might be worth looking at, I've been poking around NVTR, negative enterprise value, single product medical device company, basically a call option.<br /><br />Anything on your radar worth sharing?MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-46394312438813320152016-12-27T08:50:46.100-06:002016-12-27T08:50:46.100-06:00Hi MDC -
Is there a stock you own or on your rad...Hi MDC - <br /><br />Is there a stock you own or on your radar that has the potential or realistic possibility of "multibagging" within a 1-2 years? Thanks.no namehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01180488577665672291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-90615183509738195962016-12-12T14:15:52.337-06:002016-12-12T14:15:52.337-06:00Very true. Sems like a short would be an iffy idea...Very true. Sems like a short would be an iffy idea with this one. For sure the parent HLT is worth keeping the more I read. So buy after the split Jan 4th or buy prior and see!? Thats the question now it seems. Thanks<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-67741681179578693942016-12-06T16:41:00.960-06:002016-12-06T16:41:00.960-06:00I would assume there are better short candidates o...I would assume there are better short candidates out there? Wacky things do happen around spins, especially 3 way ones, maybe it would work out. But the core HLT is a good-to-great business that will begin a buyback program after the spinoffs occur, seems like there should be better shorting opportunities out there at current market prices. But I don't often short or have that mindset, just my thoughts. Thanks.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-83106426640550571852016-12-06T16:23:13.246-06:002016-12-06T16:23:13.246-06:00Thank you for the nice article. I also came up wit...Thank you for the nice article. I also came up with similar numbers. HLT is currently $26.31 a share. If it rallies a lot prior to the split in early Jan I may short HLT which will also be shorting the spin offs. Any thoughts?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-75960179802432277402016-12-01T21:39:58.069-06:002016-12-01T21:39:58.069-06:00I like their work, good fund to follow, I'll t...I like their work, good fund to follow, I'll take a look. Thanks for reading and the kind words.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-73649313540184432882016-12-01T14:18:53.461-06:002016-12-01T14:18:53.461-06:00Marginally OT, but since you're into real esta...Marginally OT, but since you're into real estate right now....<br /><br />I stumbled into this one: http://landandbuildings.com/ See their 10/16 report on TCO (Taubman Centers). They may not be able to overcome management, but it seems like there's real value. FYI in case you're looking for new names to research. <br /><br />Thanks for sharing - your work is fantastic.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-80727699453184686022016-11-27T09:31:50.081-06:002016-11-27T09:31:50.081-06:00Yes, should throw out a warning on that before any...Yes, should throw out a warning on that before anyone follows me, the pre-spin call options will be a lot less liquid after the spinoffs occur. I've done this a couple times and occasionally the pre-spin options get way out of whack, but I'm going into these with the intention to hold through expiration. It's mostly a placeholder, will re-evaluate after the spin to see how each company trades.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-9397787932123110932016-11-27T09:19:31.131-06:002016-11-27T09:19:31.131-06:00Those call options will go wonky post-spin.Those call options will go wonky post-spin.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com