tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post1034187098361087556..comments2024-03-28T07:17:13.573-05:00Comments on Clark Street Value: Gannett: Rumored Deal with New MediaMDChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-49081071243037472122019-08-07T14:12:26.720-05:002019-08-07T14:12:26.720-05:00"We believe one fruitful pipeline for deal op..."We believe one fruitful pipeline for deal opportunities could be foreign exchange listed companies with significant operations in the United States where Elah’s ability to return to NASDAQ or NYSE listing on an expedited and lower cost basis will be an important factor in the counter parties’ evaluation of a transaction with us."<br /><br />I found that line interesting, sort of targeting a reverse tax inversion? Makes sense and sounds less like the mini-Berkshire strategy and more like a one transaction which makes more sense to me. I'll add it to my watch-list, thanks.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-75400172844252653472019-08-07T13:50:29.955-05:002019-08-07T13:50:29.955-05:00They can be hit or miss, I try to be specific to i...They can be hit or miss, I try to be specific to individual companies or people. For instance when I bought SMTA, I setup a lot of Shopko related Google alerts, or I have a few on various executives that have sold companies that I've owned waiting to see where they pop back up again.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-37773214030788732412019-08-06T16:54:29.736-05:002019-08-06T16:54:29.736-05:00All good points. Yes, this is the old RELY. And tr...All good points. Yes, this is the old RELY. And true, the NOLs could definitely influence the price management pays. Appreciate your insight!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-70574850694291373612019-08-06T14:28:17.646-05:002019-08-06T14:28:17.646-05:00What are some of the other event type alerts you m...What are some of the other event type alerts you monitor via Google Alerts? I tried this for a while, but I got so many irrelevant results, it didn't make sense to keep up with it.The Touristhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15127858348468481296noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-91539943512698894132019-08-05T22:31:27.368-05:002019-08-05T22:31:27.368-05:00Rumored might be the wrong word since it was repor...Rumored might be the wrong word since it was reported in the WSJ, I had previously owned or written posts on both GCI and NEWM, so I was familiar with both and the headline caught my attention more than other deals. I do have some Google alerts setup for "strategic alternatives" and a bunch of other event type alerts, I follow quite a few M&A journalists and other event driven investors on Twitter, etc.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-17265710787052769262019-08-05T22:18:36.065-05:002019-08-05T22:18:36.065-05:00Hi MDC,
Thanks for this idea. Just a quick questi...Hi MDC,<br /><br />Thanks for this idea. Just a quick question. How did you find this kind of rumored deals? Did you just happen to see the news? Or do you set up Google alerts or regularly check any website of merger opportunities?<br /><br />S77https://www.blogger.com/profile/06009763434375034653noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-35219440591216212982019-08-05T21:50:14.684-05:002019-08-05T21:50:14.684-05:00This is the old RELY/SGGH? Interesting, I didn...This is the old RELY/SGGH? Interesting, I didn't realize it was still publicly traded, I looked at SGGH many years back but didn't feel comfortable with Craig Bouchard running the company like a mini-Berkshire. I'll take a fresh look at it soon, but in general as just a shell its not that different from a SPAC, financial buyer with no synergies outside of the tax asset. The presence of the NOL might lead the shell to overpay for a business, can justify it saying their cost of capital is lower based on the NOL, etc. I think it might be better to buy after a deal is announced, usually the market gives you another opportunity and you don't have to sit and wait potentially years for a deal.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-58069582651949081352019-08-05T17:25:52.757-05:002019-08-05T17:25:52.757-05:00Hey MDC, what's your opinion on NOL shells? I ...Hey MDC, what's your opinion on NOL shells? I found one called Elah Holdings: <br /><br />Market cap: $44.3M<br />Net cash (cash less all liabilities): $7.0M<br />Tax receivables: $4.3M<br />Federal NOLs: $877.9M<br />State NOLs: $318.2M<br /><br />I've read your reflection on GBRK and how NOLs are most effectively utilized when management teams purchase a single company as opposed to being like a mini-Berkshire. Would be interested in your view on this one though.<br /><br />Link: https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ELLH/disclosure<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-35819829028701529072019-08-05T14:36:08.410-05:002019-08-05T14:36:08.410-05:00I'm out now, NEWM shareholders realizing their...I'm out now, NEWM shareholders realizing their dividend is being cut in half won't be pleased.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-42996821294205522262019-08-05T14:14:15.832-05:002019-08-05T14:14:15.832-05:00Thanks! Interesting in that Fortress is giving up...Thanks! Interesting in that Fortress is giving up the management contract, well giving it up for 4.2 million shares, but still a path to looking like a normal company. Dividend normalizing (being roughly halved) as well and even more synergies than what the WSJ was reporting.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-57596355531620071732019-08-05T14:01:17.647-05:002019-08-05T14:01:17.647-05:00https://seekingalpha.com/news/3487021-new-media-se...https://seekingalpha.com/news/3487021-new-media-seals-gannett-purchase-valued-12_06-share<br /><br /><br />Under the deal, Gannett shareholders will receive $6.25 in cash and 0.5427 of a New Media share for each Gannett share held.<br /><br />As of Friday's closing prices, that comes to total consideration of $12.06 per share of Gannett<br /><br />Completely spot on. Creepy :) . Well done.writserhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04755781938953507727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-19844933495502944872019-07-28T10:02:24.877-05:002019-07-28T10:02:24.877-05:00It passes the smell test, but it might be too high...It passes the smell test, but it might be too high, that's not the thesis here, I'm not suggesting that NEWM is a buy or a good long term investment. $200MM number was leaked to the WSJ, I'm assuming that's the number they're working with on the transaction, just a matter of how that gets divided up among NEWM and GCI shareholders. NEWM has a principal-agent problem, their external manager has an incentive to grow the company, which might be at odds with shareholders.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-12883565779506314582019-07-28T09:58:48.405-05:002019-07-28T09:58:48.405-05:00Last year they missed their EBITDA guidance by abo...Last year they missed their EBITDA guidance by about $10MM. Inserts and subscription rates are a good question, but I don't think they really impact the thesis here, I think NEWM is going to follow through and acquire GCI (fee play for Fortress) and the exercise is more on what price they would pay.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-90645952494995008732019-07-27T15:04:01.628-05:002019-07-27T15:04:01.628-05:00is 200m of synergies realistic? if they fail to m...is 200m of synergies realistic? if they fail to materialize then NEWM is clearly overpaying and shareholders will face the brunt.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-7367552358271974572019-07-27T12:53:50.399-05:002019-07-27T12:53:50.399-05:00Sorry about the typos!Sorry about the typos!WhiteCoatSyndromehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02675082443483863662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-67509472209177735462019-07-27T12:52:42.697-05:002019-07-27T12:52:42.697-05:00How does the $290 EBITDA "midpoint guidance&q...How does the $290 EBITDA "midpoint guidance" compare to the operating budget they had been trying to achieve, and over the last four quarters, how have they been performing vs. budget? THAT info will help you understand whether the "midpoint guidance" is valid. With inserts declining rapidly, for example, in our induatry - which have signifant bottomline impact on EBITDA - I'd like to see that info, as well. <br />Also, has Gannett jacked up subscription rates? Enjoyed your analysis.<br />- Lou Phelps, Managing Partner<br />Phelps, Cutler & Associates<br />Consultants to MediaLouise D. Phelpsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-69228903508895172602019-07-27T08:16:26.934-05:002019-07-27T08:16:26.934-05:00I don't mean to be flippant about people losin...I don't mean to be flippant about people losing their jobs, it is a shame what's happened to industry.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-277534724512766852019-07-27T02:02:08.476-05:002019-07-27T02:02:08.476-05:00Thanks for making every journalist reach for the b...Thanks for making every journalist reach for the barf bag. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-6489330504222339882019-07-26T15:02:27.569-05:002019-07-26T15:02:27.569-05:00also GCI management doesnt like to lose their jobs...also GCI management doesnt like to lose their jobsAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02534198050262457504noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-34528243266051309112019-07-26T10:58:31.155-05:002019-07-26T10:58:31.155-05:00agreed. would have to pay $12. agreed. would have to pay $12. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02534198050262457504noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-17815996170286909322019-07-26T09:57:52.561-05:002019-07-26T09:57:52.561-05:00That's partially true, it does make it a bit t...That's partially true, it does make it a bit trickier, but I think the size of the synergies will make getting financing possible, plus NEWM is able to issue their shares as part of the transaction. I've seen people ask why doesn't GCI buy NEWM, or confused that the smaller NEWM is the buyer, its simple, because Fortress wouldn't give up their fee stream and wants an even larger one. The new company might get renamed Gannett, but NEWM will be the buyer.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-34754259811611543392019-07-26T09:16:32.998-05:002019-07-26T09:16:32.998-05:00only tricky part is ev of gci is march larger than...only tricky part is ev of gci is march larger than ev of newm. that presents problems with financing usually. only way around it is if the combined company can take on more leverage. <br />seems like you have been playing around with thisAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02534198050262457504noreply@blogger.com