tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post4109382056693710683..comments2024-03-27T17:05:53.544-05:00Comments on Clark Street Value: Colony Capital: Preferred Stock, Non-Recourse Debt, Complex Mix of AssetsMDChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-18733709015721050972020-05-08T13:47:23.572-05:002020-05-08T13:47:23.572-05:00Thanks for the quick reply. I'll be adding mor...Thanks for the quick reply. I'll be adding more!Mayday981https://www.blogger.com/profile/04052075727786933395noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-44778660729519682972020-05-08T13:06:43.673-05:002020-05-08T13:06:43.673-05:00It doesn't change my opinion really, still thi...It doesn't change my opinion really, still think these are money good in the long run, but hard to time when to buy a dip. Their posture seems to be that they'll suspend the preferred dividend, but then Barrack boldly says that the common stock's survival a certainty? It's relatively small for me, might add more if it dips on a true suspension of the dividend, but I feel good about it eventually recovering to ~par. MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-12681917406811095682020-05-08T12:40:50.939-05:002020-05-08T12:40:50.939-05:00Hi, I just the news that Colony is delaying their ...Hi, I just the news that Colony is delaying their preferred stock dividend. Does that change your opinion on this or do you think buying at the dip might be a good idea? Mayday981https://www.blogger.com/profile/04052075727786933395noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-52763662258662722442020-05-04T10:18:52.254-05:002020-05-04T10:18:52.254-05:00Got it - thank youGot it - thank youAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-74129404523483947272020-05-04T08:16:36.959-05:002020-05-04T08:16:36.959-05:00I was using the number from their Q4 press release...I was using the number from their Q4 press release (2/28), which should include the RXR sale:<br /><br />Liquidity and Financing<br /><br />As of February 25, 2020, the Company had significant liquidity of $1.3 billion including $520 million cash-on-hand and through availability under its revolving credit facility.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-19211985087565476192020-05-03T14:49:44.580-05:002020-05-03T14:49:44.580-05:00how are you getting to $520 cash? Isn't it jus...how are you getting to $520 cash? Isn't it just:<br /><br />12/31/19 BS: Consolidated $1,205,190 less NCI $114,224 = CLNY Share $1,091mm<br />Less: $403mm in pref redemption (Jan 20)<br />Plus: $179mm from RXR sale<br />Adj. 12/31/19: $862mmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-86081427151904421912020-04-30T09:43:56.947-05:002020-04-30T09:43:56.947-05:00It's about 30% of book, not a 30% discount, so...It's about 30% of book, not a 30% discount, sorry if that wasn't clear. Book value was $16.49 as of 12/31 (what's it now?), trading for ~$5.00.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-58048806476065385192020-04-30T09:36:07.136-05:002020-04-30T09:36:07.136-05:00How did you get to 30% discount for CLNC?How did you get to 30% discount for CLNC?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-57573134338984514572020-04-28T09:10:58.746-05:002020-04-28T09:10:58.746-05:00Took a brief look at it, seems like if the assets ...Took a brief look at it, seems like if the assets are worth a 12% cap rate on 2019 NOI (who knows what 2020 will look like) the preferred stock is cover? Is that about right?<br /><br />I want to look into their redevelopment and other capex needs, essentially had zero cash at year end.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-77418564445338289162020-04-27T08:46:04.617-05:002020-04-27T08:46:04.617-05:00I haven't, thanks for the idea, I'll take ...I haven't, thanks for the idea, I'll take a lookMDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-70337729935193130122020-04-25T15:29:43.215-05:002020-04-25T15:29:43.215-05:00Thanks for the post. Have you looked at Cedar Real...Thanks for the post. Have you looked at Cedar Realty Trust preferred? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-44989917176198986462020-04-15T22:24:41.063-05:002020-04-15T22:24:41.063-05:00Thanks for your help. I will stick with the prefer...Thanks for your help. I will stick with the preferred stock for now. I look forward to your future posts! Have a good day!Mayday981https://www.blogger.com/profile/04052075727786933395noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-61612530619584129452020-04-15T21:55:58.625-05:002020-04-15T21:55:58.625-05:00I haven't bought the common, that's probab...I haven't bought the common, that's probably the best answer I can give to it. I think to buy CLNY you need to have some view or confidence in the new business plan of being a digital infrastructure investor/manager and how likely they are to succeed there. I think the preferred is a shorter putt.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-59318270505653348832020-04-15T14:55:56.265-05:002020-04-15T14:55:56.265-05:00Thanks I appreciate the reply. Would you buy CLNY?...Thanks I appreciate the reply. Would you buy CLNY? Or do you think it's too risky? Mayday981https://www.blogger.com/profile/04052075727786933395noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-75387327300010868082020-04-15T09:28:33.547-05:002020-04-15T09:28:33.547-05:00Somewhere in between. I'd say my turnover is ...Somewhere in between. I'd say my turnover is likely to be higher in the current environment, so if it trades up to $22-23 in the near term and there are better opportunities out there, not going to wait for the extra couple dollars. Same goes on the downside, if I'm wrong, might be quicker to exit too.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-10223862001004986782020-04-15T08:25:07.680-05:002020-04-15T08:25:07.680-05:00Hi, thanks for the great analysis. I'm thinkin...Hi, thanks for the great analysis. I'm thinking of getting into this now. What is your exit strategy? Is it short term and just taking profits as they come or long term and hitting that possible price of $25?Mayday981https://www.blogger.com/profile/04052075727786933395noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-10605511915847164602020-04-13T13:43:04.318-05:002020-04-13T13:43:04.318-05:00Ah thanks, yeah should be $520MM.Ah thanks, yeah should be $520MM.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-58721427598845619792020-04-13T11:27:08.100-05:002020-04-13T11:27:08.100-05:00Cash balance typo in your SOTP? I have been lookin...Cash balance typo in your SOTP? I have been looking at this as well and it's an interesting one.SchadenCapnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-75102861493569350112020-04-13T09:29:31.093-05:002020-04-13T09:29:31.093-05:00Hard to say, he was a buyer the previous week, reb...Hard to say, he was a buyer the previous week, rebalancing between the preferreds? I sold the G's today, bought the I's, just depending where liquidity is might be able to get a better price, think they're all pari passu.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-3967472328077335602020-04-13T09:27:35.148-05:002020-04-13T09:27:35.148-05:00Thanks - interesting idea, I'll take a lookThanks - interesting idea, I'll take a lookMDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-26456244128043798512020-04-13T09:26:15.848-05:002020-04-13T09:26:15.848-05:00I haven't looked at them yet, but interestingl...I haven't looked at them yet, but interestingly the new CLNC CEO came from Ladder. I'm not sure of the repurchase agreement mechanics on whole loans, just assume its more underlying asset performance driven than price drive, there will surely be pain in the underlying performance but the originator will have more control/options in how that gets worked out? At least that's my assumption. For the CRE CLOs, missed payments will cause haircutting in the asset coverage calculations, and the margins there are relatively small compared to a traditional CLO, so I imagine a lot of those will see funds diverted initially from the equity/sponsor. But overtime they can be cured.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-6345657054812185322020-04-12T17:11:21.656-05:002020-04-12T17:11:21.656-05:00Any insight as to why Tommy boy is selling his ser...Any insight as to why Tommy boy is selling his series G at ~10 per share?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-75792995697066090772020-04-11T23:52:26.940-05:002020-04-11T23:52:26.940-05:00Just had the same thoughts on these (I bought the ...Just had the same thoughts on these (I bought the Is). <br /><br />Have also been a heavy buyer (though not as heavy as I'd like) of SACC/SCCB--notes which represent basically the only debt for SACH, a tiny hard-money real estate lender. A host of reasons for caution--recent management change (was 2 brothers, now is one of those brothers), concentrated in high-tax, NY-dependent Connecticut, recently expanded to other geographies where they have less expertise and more reliance on 3rd parties, are lending to probably weaker borrowers--but they lend very short-term at a reasonable LTV, have brass-knuckle expertise as hard-money lenders, which will be useful if things do sour further, and have a clean, easy to understand model and BS. high-30% return to par (in 4 years for the first series), plus ~9% current cash yield, and VERY good coverage. Was obviously more tempting when they were sub-$10, but I think this does better during a protracted swoon than many prefs, and still offers nice upside if/when things normalize. ADLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11578314123744054067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-21665294713402226772020-04-11T06:13:28.241-05:002020-04-11T06:13:28.241-05:00Nice post. Have you looked at Ladder Capital? Most...Nice post. Have you looked at Ladder Capital? Mostly whole loan exposed so has met all margin calls on their smaller CMBS book. Do you know how the secured debt on whole loans work? Do missed / deferred mortgage payments remove loans from asset coverage calcs? Any mechanics there?InvestingIdeasOnlyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17759317903624486815noreply@blogger.com