tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post4439688919700300645..comments2024-03-28T07:17:13.573-05:00Comments on Clark Street Value: Transcontinental Realty: VAA JV Properties Sold, What's Next?MDChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-22375611624607515332023-03-17T20:45:27.782-05:002023-03-17T20:45:27.782-05:00ARL (owns 78.4% TCI) market cap now $484mm, or 128...ARL (owns 78.4% TCI) market cap now $484mm, or 128% of TCI's $378mm market cap. If ARL's $484mm market cap were 78.4% of TCI's, TCI would be trading at $71.49/share (approx. 0.8x Q3'22 book value) which is 64% above today's closing price. Am I missing something? Is there any rationale for holding ARL at current levels instead of TCI? <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-80192248953765059322023-01-26T11:19:32.770-06:002023-01-26T11:19:32.770-06:00Maybe yes. I owned ARL originally, sold it in ear...Maybe yes. I owned ARL originally, sold it in early November at $20 to flip to TCI. It is hard to handicap what happens from here, but my thinking is you want to be as close to the assets as possible. TCI owns Southern Properties Capital, and then ARL owns most of TCI. Where in the Russian nesting doll do you want to be? Hard to say.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-6437317671829614602023-01-26T10:44:04.511-06:002023-01-26T10:44:04.511-06:00Hmm in hindsight buying ARL was the winning move h...Hmm in hindsight buying ARL was the winning move here. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-6770142118244386622022-11-11T13:08:39.827-06:002022-11-11T13:08:39.827-06:00Point taken. However it ends, thanks for this blog...Point taken. However it ends, thanks for this blog post. I really enjoyed reading your thoughts, clear and logical.tthaarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02356831789878142655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-62317803389008192482022-11-11T10:29:08.855-06:002022-11-11T10:29:08.855-06:00Give it more than a day. Might need to wait until...Give it more than a day. Might need to wait until strategies rebalance, indices get reconstituted, etc.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-11027502785327607762022-11-11T09:59:03.794-06:002022-11-11T09:59:03.794-06:00Q3 results out, nice book value growth to 88.03 pe...Q3 results out, nice book value growth to 88.03 per share, so up 116%. However, the price seems to be staying at around 41 per share - seems that quant strategies didn't notice (or don't care), after all. Hopefully, the management doesn't waste that cash.tthaarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02356831789878142655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-84162188405764292122022-09-19T10:54:29.588-05:002022-09-19T10:54:29.588-05:00TCI 8K out FYITCI 8K out FYIAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-23786148254462306232022-09-12T16:32:04.474-05:002022-09-12T16:32:04.474-05:00It kind of depends what price you're anchored ...It kind of depends what price you're anchored to, the fair private market value is probably somewhere around ~$100 and the current stock price is around ~$40, so there's a lot of room in there for management to steal value from minority shareholders while still offering a reasonable premium to current prices to get the deal done.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-66232816814243183532022-09-12T15:40:30.902-05:002022-09-12T15:40:30.902-05:00Thanks MDC. Another great write up. What's to ...Thanks MDC. Another great write up. What's to stop the controlling shareholders from buying out minority shareholders at a minimal premium?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-22950826002029825772022-09-10T09:13:19.616-05:002022-09-10T09:13:19.616-05:00I would have liked to see an 8-K confirming the ex...I would have liked to see an 8-K confirming the extension and receipt of the $10MM extra extension, but TCI is pretty minimal in their disclosures so it's not surprising. I'm still going under the assumption that the deal will close, they stated in their 10-Q "the sale is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2022". Macquarie seems very motivated to close the deal. If for some reason the deal doesn't close, it is not catastrophic in my mind, the stock price barely moved on the news, and while I think we got a good price, there are still plenty of buyers for sunbelt apartments. But yes, let's all cross our fingers that the deal closes this week without a problem.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-36615958217553954552022-09-10T08:03:47.956-05:002022-09-10T08:03:47.956-05:00Thanks for the writeups MDC. Any thoughts on the e...Thanks for the writeups MDC. Any thoughts on the extension here and/or the deal breaking? The 75 day period was up a week ago, I assume since there were no announcements about the deal closing or breaking, the buyers ponied up the extra $10m for an extension. This suggests we may close this week. Perhaps they're having trouble closing the financing? I do own TCI stock...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-46228529256134127822022-08-08T11:23:02.981-05:002022-08-08T11:23:02.981-05:00I go back and forth on wether they could buy out t...I go back and forth on wether they could buy out the whole complex (ARL, TCI, IOR) in a single transaction or if there is going to be some tax reason they need to merge the companies together first then do a buyout. I think even with no transaction it should rerate after they report the next quarter. The thing about the 13D that throws me for a loop too is it didn't include all the heirs. Only 3 of 7?Moso6881https://www.blogger.com/profile/00701534611511990053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-79927671012285211702022-08-08T09:43:50.967-05:002022-08-08T09:43:50.967-05:00I'm not 100% sure either, they go out of their...I'm not 100% sure either, they go out of their way to say it doesn't mean anything. But maybe it allows them to buy 5% more and then do a short form merger? Yeah, I don't know either.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-15082117294156117302022-08-03T11:41:07.925-05:002022-08-03T11:41:07.925-05:00Any thoughts on the 13D out from the family? I can...Any thoughts on the 13D out from the family? I can't really make heads or tails of why the filed it. Moso6881https://www.blogger.com/profile/00701534611511990053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-2028232842809699582022-06-23T15:13:09.520-05:002022-06-23T15:13:09.520-05:00Hm, ha, it's below $44 now, you could always b...Hm, ha, it's below $44 now, you could always buy it back? Unless I'm missing the joke.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-25476236389754705522022-06-23T13:41:31.784-05:002022-06-23T13:41:31.784-05:00Damn. Why did I sell half at $44?Damn. Why did I sell half at $44?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com