tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post5304276249959111055..comments2024-03-28T07:17:13.573-05:00Comments on Clark Street Value: BBX Capital: Bluegreen Vacations IPOMDChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-67574809263209864582019-03-05T12:13:15.806-06:002019-03-05T12:13:15.806-06:00Yes, my guess is they've been facing pressure ...Yes, my guess is they've been facing pressure to close the discount, so instead of doing something investor friendly, they're doing the opposite. By taking BXG private again, it won't have a public market value, and the "Levan discount" will be a bit more vague and harder to pinpoint.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-28268370279905402822019-03-05T12:07:35.413-06:002019-03-05T12:07:35.413-06:00The take private seems like an odd reversal of cou...The take private seems like an odd reversal of course, no?mattnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-14481933012778695442018-07-08T14:20:32.285-05:002018-07-08T14:20:32.285-05:00Fair question, no idea! It's trading at a mas...Fair question, no idea! It's trading at a massive discount that's arguably completely disconnected from BXG, hard to know what's going to happen here, but seems cheap enough to me to continue to hold.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-24775219339678407922018-07-05T09:53:59.183-05:002018-07-05T09:53:59.183-05:00Is there something missing from this i sold at 9.2...Is there something missing from this i sold at 9.22 when bxg was like sub 20 now its almost 25 and bbx is still hovering that range ? I didnt understand why the discount was widening or if it will ever close Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-25768626127365201732018-04-01T21:09:40.847-05:002018-04-01T21:09:40.847-05:00I don't think they're going to get many ta...I don't think they're going to get many takers, seems like a waste of time/energy. The discount is substantially wider now than before the IPO, and if you look at the 10-K, they have a new disclosure laying out what they expect to receive from their real estate assets and when they expect to be sold. A lot of near term monetizations will be happening.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-71530806681344700082018-04-01T17:34:53.495-05:002018-04-01T17:34:53.495-05:00What do you think about the tender offer?What do you think about the tender offer?matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00871126254531417843noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-30109354721844735722018-02-05T14:39:03.699-06:002018-02-05T14:39:03.699-06:00dancheng30@hotmail.com, thanks!dancheng30@hotmail.com, thanks!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09909891542841192520noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-64186783458262488752018-01-09T11:11:13.701-06:002018-01-09T11:11:13.701-06:00FYI, worked out exactly as planned, which is a cas...FYI, worked out exactly as planned, which is a case, almost certainly, of more lucky than good...ADLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11578314123744054067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-44921866364813264352017-11-24T11:42:01.585-06:002017-11-24T11:42:01.585-06:00Yeah, this idea is strictly a result of "miss...Yeah, this idea is strictly a result of "mission drift"! BBX, RDNT and LICT are my largest positions and have been for some time; I wander away from core positions/discipline and get into trouble...ADLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11578314123744054067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-36117775809698349862017-11-24T08:09:20.694-06:002017-11-24T08:09:20.694-06:00Well, I am just a value peon... so not smart enoug...Well, I am just a value peon... so not smart enough to understand/buy options. And with my simple value outlook, royalty trusts are impossible to value - to do so you'd have to have a reasonable view on oil price for the duration of the royalty cashflows, which is just not possible. Same thing for valuing equity in shipping stocks. But my view point is limited - and not to say right. Just what makes sense for me. Good luck on BPT. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-82994279594427842042017-11-24T06:33:42.964-06:002017-11-24T06:33:42.964-06:00f.bamberg@gmx.net, thanks!f.bamberg@gmx.net, thanks!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12594395536299258878noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-77886888306231549842017-11-21T15:25:31.465-06:002017-11-21T15:25:31.465-06:00@anonymous:
Uch, Black Earth Farming--I was tempt...@anonymous:<br /><br />Uch, Black Earth Farming--I was tempted by that but got scared, and am glad I did! The farmland aspect made it seem like it was ripe for trouble. <br /><br />Good point on CFIUS speed; I didn't think about a delay as much as I should have. Obviously return profile changes quite a bit if it takes extra time. I bought ASHG shortly before the merger announcement and just got lucky; have been trying to decide whether to add.<br /><br />Entirely different notes: I think BPT (and particularly its January calls) is a very interesting situation with a January catalyst, but since this depends on the price of oil (an easy input to track, though impossible to predict) and investor psychology (impossible all around) I can't recommend it, though I've invested. <br /><br />Basically, with WTI where it is now, the trust will likely distribute ~$1.20 in January, which annualized at its trailing 12 month or trailing 5 year yield would get you a price of $26.40-33.60. Of course, the trust is an awful product from which many retail holders have been scared, belatedly, by short-sellers pointing out how the trust structure is stacked against them and the trust--as it discloses in its 10-K annually, though many holders don't bother to read--will likely terminate over the next few years. <br /><br />My thinking is that the weaker retail holders have sold and the remainder--trust/oil bulls--will see this higher distribution as vindication and drive up the price, albeit more mutedly than in the past. But this whole thing is predicated on the oil price now through 12/31 (which determines the distribution, and can at least be checked daily), the oil price in January (as a background to general potential investor psychology), the forward strip, and psychology, so it's an unquantifiable mess which maybe--only maybe!--creates an interesting opportunity. ADLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11578314123744054067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-91330050618244119592017-11-21T04:05:20.175-06:002017-11-21T04:05:20.175-06:00@adl Apologies - I misstyped. I meant ASHG, not E...@adl Apologies - I misstyped. I meant ASHG, not ENZN. I agree on GLBL - have held it since before merger announcement and continue to hold. On CFIUS - I agree the chance of it getting failed is low. However, the CFIUS process has been very slow this year b/c of Trump - there is a chance the deal gets delayed which would impact IRR. I also have had bad experience (Black Earth Farming in Sweden) with projected shareholder returns based on actual cash situation at transaction time, so will pass. Thanks again and Good luck!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-17003134890020201512017-11-20T15:28:38.915-06:002017-11-20T15:28:38.915-06:00@anonymous: CFIUS isn't an issue for ENZN, as ...@anonymous: CFIUS isn't an issue for ENZN, as it's not being acquired (ENZN cash reduction on BS is a result of special dividend, as they're in slo-mo liquidation). Could be on ASHG and GLBL, but the industries, and the countries of the acquirers, don't make it seem like much of an issue--we're not dealing with much proprietary high-tech or national security in either case. On ASHG, it's basically a family company, and while they could siphon off a bit of cash to themselves first, they've been quite fair to minority shareholders so far. ADLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11578314123744054067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-19913244868049056612017-11-20T06:44:51.370-06:002017-11-20T06:44:51.370-06:00ADL - what a fantastic post - thank you!
On ENZN, ...ADL - what a fantastic post - thank you!<br />On ENZN, do you know where CFIUS has got to? Quite a few things have fallen over at the CFIUS stage this year... and that could be a risk. That and the cash swing since last balance sheet are the main risk factors IMHOAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-57960230729244722892017-11-18T09:00:46.446-06:002017-11-18T09:00:46.446-06:00Some weekend research, thank you!Some weekend research, thank you!MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-90034754949163803642017-11-17T17:38:43.989-06:002017-11-17T17:38:43.989-06:00A bummer about how they traded today, but in the g...A bummer about how they traded today, but in the grand scheme not so dreadful. Momentive pulled their IPO (from pinks) due to famed "market conditions," so it's good--maybe?--that at least BXG got it done. <br /><br />I think the dividend to come represents the first potential hard catalyst for BXG. Based on performance the past few years (famous last words), it looks like BBX gave them a little room to raise the dividend down the line and potentially juice returns, if needed.<br /><br />Off-topic, 3 liquidation/merger ideas:<br /><br />GLBL: BAM acquiring for $5.10 "by year end." Currently $4.80. Don't love it because a lawsuit has to be settled first, though BAM has experience enough that I'd take them somewhat at their word. ~6% return in ~6 weeks.<br /><br />ASHG: To be acquired by CRH "late 2017 or early 2018" $531-548. Currently ~$510. Seems like low chance of deal break. Probably spread exists due to illiquidity and uncertainty about what final payoff will be, and because consideration is two-part: payment from CRH and, pre-merger, a dividending of excess cash. Range of outcomes: 4% over 10 weeks to 7.5% over 5 weeks. Seems good at low end, great at high end. <br /><br />ENZN: liquidating, and their receivable from Nektar is payable in January, adding $3.5 million cash to their stash and, I suspect, triggering a 5-10 cent special dividend. Currently at ~32 cents, which may be a little high to buy. Additional catalysts: Shire potentially filing for SC Oncaspar and receiving approval (as outlined in most recent quarterly), triggering $7 million payable to ENZN (~15.5 cents/share), and resumption of royalties now that overpayment arrears are mostly cleared up. Not a screaming buy at 32 cents, but may be in line to have current share price in cash by mid-2018, ~2/3 to be dividended out (based on past behavior) by YE, with a drip of cash flow for several years thereafter and some chance of something happening with the NOL/shell listing. You will get your cash back one way or another, but IRRs look meh if one or another catalyst doesn't happen. <br /><br />That's more than enough!ADLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11578314123744054067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-70511856149550573782017-11-17T14:39:39.214-06:002017-11-17T14:39:39.214-06:00email at hkuppy@pracap.comemail at hkuppy@pracap.comAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00872310240173489159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-41378338133435786132017-11-17T14:39:07.411-06:002017-11-17T14:39:07.411-06:00Thanks again. I posted to VIC to help get some exp...Thanks again. I posted to VIC to help get some exposure for it. If you aren't on VIC, email me and I'll send you a PDF. Thanks again for the idea and doing the heavy lifting here. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00872310240173489159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-20456046395081915582017-11-17T11:14:27.509-06:002017-11-17T11:14:27.509-06:00Disclosure is a little light, but pages 13-18 of t...Disclosure is a little light, but pages 13-18 of the 10-K go through the real estate and legacy loan holdings.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-35169288064024340292017-11-17T11:08:50.317-06:002017-11-17T11:08:50.317-06:00One last question (for now). Where is all this rea...One last question (for now). Where is all this real estate on the balance sheet or is it just sprinkled around in a few places? I actually think it's $166m -$21m fwiw so $145m net.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00872310240173489159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-25462637950251821112017-11-17T10:38:56.503-06:002017-11-17T10:38:56.503-06:00No, I think you have that right. I was using $180...No, I think you have that right. I was using $180MM from the 10-K.<br /><br />And sure, it's all material at a certain level, but even at $13 for BXG, that's $8.56 per share to BBX, leaves a lot room on the cash at BBX and other assets/liabilities.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-50907696902764175642017-11-17T10:20:43.092-06:002017-11-17T10:20:43.092-06:00Sorry to scare you. Been a rough day already here ...Sorry to scare you. Been a rough day already here (though I bought it rotten under $7). <br />Wouldn't the combination add up to $1.40/shr--not immaterial? Also, how do you calculate the property at $180m. $166m +43m Equity investments -$20m debt = $189m or am I thinking of this correctly? Sorry, trying to get up to speed in a hurry as the shares came in and it got real attractive. <br />ThanksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00872310240173489159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-80331121595782144262017-11-17T10:14:40.376-06:002017-11-17T10:14:40.376-06:00Heart skipped a beat there at the $663MM, yeah the...Heart skipped a beat there at the $663MM, yeah the rest of BBX I kind of lopped off, a grab bag of other assets that would take a lot longer to go through individually, but that's fair to mention the junior subordinate notes and the related party $80MM. Thanks.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-76030563662730601682017-11-17T10:13:30.712-06:002017-11-17T10:13:30.712-06:00Fair way to look at it.Fair way to look at it.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.com