tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post6625793462383073483..comments2024-03-19T04:41:45.798-05:00Comments on Clark Street Value: Tropicana Entertainment: Deal with GLPI & ERI, Merger ArbMDChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-50760956541094497952019-01-22T13:57:36.015-06:002019-01-22T13:57:36.015-06:00Nice call on RFL!Nice call on RFL!MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-22651943719003055652018-10-04T17:17:58.869-05:002018-10-04T17:17:58.869-05:00Same, cash hit my account pretty quickly compared ...Same, cash hit my account pretty quickly compared to other deals.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-75951383557554732482018-10-04T17:17:34.052-05:002018-10-04T17:17:34.052-05:00Thanks, slightly disappointing with the ending amo...Thanks, slightly disappointing with the ending amount but the time value makes up for it somewhat.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-21330750795583534862018-10-04T04:31:12.709-05:002018-10-04T04:31:12.709-05:00Closed on 02/10. I got 75.14Closed on 02/10. I got 75.14UDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07016239977732459291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-79856992075481645212018-10-01T12:48:41.847-05:002018-10-01T12:48:41.847-05:00And delisted today. $75.14 / share. Near the botto...And delisted today. $75.14 / share. Near the bottom of the range, but still, decent return. And reasonably fast close. Thanks for bringing up (yet another) original idea!writserhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04755781938953507727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-79529127373828055342018-06-13T11:09:10.107-05:002018-06-13T11:09:10.107-05:00I just took a look in Rafael Holdings. I'm a M...I just took a look in Rafael Holdings. I'm a M.D. so I focused on their stakes in two biotech companies: Rafael Pharmaceuticals and Lipomedix. Rafael Pharma's pipeline CPI-613, which is a small molecule compound originally discovered at Stony Brook, that has completed multiple Phase I trails in lymphoma/leukemia, pancreatic, and lung cancer. It's currently undergoing multiple phase 2 trails (a lot of them are done in Case Western), that are showing promising results. One of their phase 2 trails was published in Lancet Oncology, a prestigious journal. (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanonc/article/PIIS1470-2045(17)30314-5/abstract). Base on the existing data, FDA has already granted orphan drug designation to CPI-613 for the treatment of AML and pancreatic cancer. I think CPI-613 is a promising cancer therapeutic agent as it 1) showed a low toxicity profile in multiple Phase I and Phase II trails, 2) has a different mechanism of action that targets mitochondria metabolism (currently the only agent in this class) that can complement other chemotherapy agents in a cocktail, 3) is a small compound that can be produced cheaply and have favorable pharmacokinetics, and 4) that can be scaled up to treat multiple cancers - hematologic as well as solid tumors, if the current phase II trials come out promising. I think the other biotech Lipomedix's pipeline is interesting but very early in it's development (undegoing phase I trial) and can be discarded in the RFL valuation. It's worthwhile to note RFL's stake in Rafael Pharma is in the forms of warrants and options to buy 52% of the company. If RFL choose to exercise these rights fully, it will cost them ~ $110 million, which is their current market cap. On the balance sheet, they have about ~$50 million of cash and no debt. RFL's main real estate holding is a 20 story building, 520 broad street newark NJ, which has some problems that makes it difficult to estimate its valuation (the numbers I've seen are $20-$70 million). I definitely think RFL is worth a look, especially as CPI-613 does actually appear promising. My question is mainly - why did Howard Jonas, a savvy investor/speculator, did this spin-off, as he currently holds the same amount of stake for both the parent company IDT as well as RFL. I think the most likely reason is that he plans to take Raphael Pharma public? However, I'd be interested to know what you think. MDC.Fanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04764947023052174912noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-38913865996685099202018-06-05T19:48:47.960-05:002018-06-05T19:48:47.960-05:00Glad you are interested. My thought is that, subtr...Glad you are interested. My thought is that, subtracting hard assets, cash and CRE, you basically get a biotech for free. I am not an expert of biotech, but from my biotech friend, the pharma business is workable, worth more than 100M. And CEO is highly incentivized, having done some successful spin-offs. RFL is quite similar to his another past spin-off, Straight Path Communication.<br /><br />Look forward to your thoughts if you study more of RFL.<br />S77https://www.blogger.com/profile/06009763434375034653noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-28779741128298630552018-06-05T08:15:51.579-05:002018-06-05T08:15:51.579-05:00Thanks - I have taken a quick look at it, I do lik...Thanks - I have taken a quick look at it, I do like "grab bag" type spinoffs where the assets don't lend themselves to be easy to value, so I am attracted to it, but haven't done enough work to say anything intelligent. Curious to hear your thoughts or others on it.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-90329362232895460202018-06-05T02:45:59.433-05:002018-06-05T02:45:59.433-05:00Hi MDC,
Really enjoy your ideas. Not sure if you ...Hi MDC,<br /><br />Really enjoy your ideas. Not sure if you are still following bio-tech special situations. Maybe you can take a look at Rafael Holdings, comprised of cash, commercial real estate and two biotech stakes. An interesting case.<br />S77https://www.blogger.com/profile/06009763434375034653noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-83108116305326779562018-05-04T09:38:45.663-05:002018-05-04T09:38:45.663-05:00Nothing really new, still feels like a cheap stock...Nothing really new, still feels like a cheap stock but the company was completely unprepared for life as a standalone company. I do worry about how much of the "services" revenue is really print related. Reminds me of how VSTO used to split up their segments by shooting sports and outdoor, shooting would just have ammo and guns, but all the gun accessories would be in outdoor. Other than that, now they're in their target leverage range, we'll see if they can thread the needle in growing the services/software side of the business while controlling the costs while running off the print side. I still own it.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-19324880466211446892018-05-04T06:12:41.511-05:002018-05-04T06:12:41.511-05:00any new thoughts on DFIN?any new thoughts on DFIN?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-34688159415817170112018-04-24T14:18:17.156-05:002018-04-24T14:18:17.156-05:00Is there a chance the taxes come in higher than ex...Is there a chance the taxes come in higher than expected?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-38777691369724161322018-04-24T14:10:24.920-05:002018-04-24T14:10:24.920-05:00Good catch thanks, safe to say then I'll be ca...Good catch thanks, safe to say then I'll be carefully watching the hurricane season between TPCA and CPLG.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-20782139242576751332018-04-24T13:25:28.470-05:002018-04-24T13:25:28.470-05:00Its an interesting one but also some risk given th...Its an interesting one but also some risk given that only "man-made disasters" are carved out from the contract - given that there are some properties on the water here, you are taking some tail risk with Hurricane season starting up in June and lasting till November. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03845593956217635161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-8957312571566940612018-04-23T21:40:41.686-05:002018-04-23T21:40:41.686-05:00I forget which post I responded to a similar comme...I forget which post I responded to a similar comment, but yes, I'm disappointed in the results to date but still holding. Sugarman seems to acknowledge the need to simplify at times but then in his recently release letter talks about all the "innovation" iStar has done over the past couple decades, but who cares if results don't follow? The need to innovate again also doesn't seem to match up with the need to simplify.<br /><br />Adding Andy Richardson is potentially interesting, HHC (which I own) is actually a developer, they're also fairly promotional, but their disclosures are far better than STAR's, you can actually develop a fairly robust bottom's up NAV of HHC because of the property level financials they give. STAR is relatively opaque in that regard. But I do find it a little annoying that iStar keeps adding to their executive team, Richardson is pitched as just the interim CFO so presumably a new CFO is on the way too, they just added a CIO as well, and yet they've discussed needing to rationalize G&A? Their actions seem at odds with that, but if the real goal here is to line up separate executives for some kind of split, then maybe it makes sense? I'm waiting for the results of the strategic alternative initiative, seems like the status quo is built into the stock price, don't see much downside in waiting. Thanks for the comment.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-87222166564723278332018-04-23T15:37:18.174-05:002018-04-23T15:37:18.174-05:00Any new thoughts on STAR?
I still continue to hol...Any new thoughts on STAR?<br /><br />I still continue to hold since last two years without much gains. Some recent developments sound good, but there's still question mark over how they'll simplify the structure:<br /><br />1. Hired Andy Richardson (formerly CFO of Howard Hughes) --> seems to be another move towards becoming a developer<br /><br />2. Current CFO stepping down (Don't know what to read here, except that the guy failed at the getting the market excited about the stock)<br /><br />3. Glendale's Westgate Entertainment District is up for sale for $142M. STAR took over property from Ellman Co when they failed to pay $97.5M loan. So looks like a good gain and time to sell.<br /><br />4. Sugarman says in the annual report that they need to grow assets to boost stock price. Cynical take - hope they don't make stupid investments at the height of CRE market (like 2006). Also, their annual report doesn't look like REIT, more like a promotional developer.<br /><br />Walnut Ave Valuehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191583105523570762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-23873827641922906582018-04-22T03:25:17.474-05:002018-04-22T03:25:17.474-05:00Dang! Look at what happened since the tender! Dou...Dang! Look at what happened since the tender! Double dang that I also sold in the tender! Thanks for bringing this up - looks like a decent deal.<br /><br />PogonificAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-77187674089481165882018-04-17T08:58:03.187-05:002018-04-17T08:58:03.187-05:00Thanks MDC for originally helping get this on my r...Thanks MDC for originally helping get this on my radar, it's been a nice double for me! Like you, I'm comfortable still holding w/ the spread more than enough to justify.701 LVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15822727329229317825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-67182541737944725622018-04-17T08:33:22.134-05:002018-04-17T08:33:22.134-05:00Ha, well at least it has passed your initial smell...Ha, well at least it has passed your initial smell test, seems like your niche.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-65566746719999150572018-04-17T07:55:09.067-05:002018-04-17T07:55:09.067-05:00This idea seems interesting: decent expected retur...This idea seems interesting: decent expected return, uncertainty of payout / otc listing / illiquidity as potential causes for mispricing. No special insights, just posting this to get notified in case somebody posts a genius follow-up!writserhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04755781938953507727noreply@blogger.com