tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post8602079749442313708..comments2024-03-28T07:17:13.573-05:00Comments on Clark Street Value: Acres Commercial Realty: Trading Well Below BV, Buybacks Over DividendsMDChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-75262749764396130152023-11-03T11:28:48.209-05:002023-11-03T11:28:48.209-05:00They rely on the bank/CMBS market functioning, nee...They rely on the bank/CMBS market functioning, need someone to refinance their bridge loans when they come due, that's the big risk, continued freezing of CRE credit markets. The downside risk is they morph from a mortgage REIT to an equity REIT when they foreclose on borrowers. I'm still holding, but it is a relatively small position that I don't think too much about.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-76782745745359533692023-11-03T11:12:28.310-05:002023-11-03T11:12:28.310-05:00This thing seems to bounce around a lot toward the...This thing seems to bounce around a lot toward the eoy my surmise 2/2 low float and rebalancing. As I did last year at this time, I have a sizable gtc on for sub $7 hoping to catch someone selling out.<br /><br />I think the big downside risk here, as with all of the mreits (and really market as a whole) is an economy roll over.EJLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-1189368475480465172023-11-02T14:06:47.916-05:002023-11-02T14:06:47.916-05:00Thanks. I did notice that change in language as w...Thanks. I did notice that change in language as well.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-59164587566875621492023-11-02T11:50:43.655-05:002023-11-02T11:50:43.655-05:00501 Chapel Dr (west side of street) for those who ...501 Chapel Dr (west side of street) for those who want to play alongEJLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-84079717543651055202023-11-02T11:49:00.192-05:002023-11-02T11:49:00.192-05:00"We're now in a place where we believe th..."We're now in a place where we believe those assets are going to begin to get monetized and the gains will be utilized through those NOLs to increase book value."<br /><br />Bit of a change in the cc wording, and if I recall, I believe early '24 was their target.<br /><br />Additionally, I grew up in TLH/went to FSU, now own commercial in TLH - although I have lived in Chicago for a decade now - but I know the Chapel Dr. property. Google maps street view shows the carpentry nearly complete as of June of this year. I've reached out to one of my buds in TLH commercial RE to figure out if a buyer is known or deal is in the works.EJLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-16124709367374955512023-01-20T09:54:41.853-06:002023-01-20T09:54:41.853-06:00Onivyde almost certainly gets approved in 1L mPDAC...Onivyde almost certainly gets approved in 1L mPDAC now. I estimate MACK NAV at ~$16/share by year end.<br /><br />https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230120005252/en/Ipsen-Presents-Phase-III-NAPOLI-3-Trial-of-Onivyde%C2%AE-Regimen-Demonstrating-Positive-Survival-Results-in-Previously-Untreated-Metastatic-Pancreatic-Ductal-Adenocarcinoma-at-ASCO-GIAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-52386633343717138312022-12-22T17:49:26.597-06:002022-12-22T17:49:26.597-06:00Biggest risk with MACK is that we haven't seen...Biggest risk with MACK is that we haven't seen the full data yet. That's why it trades at a discount. I think the drug is approvable but with just Ipsen's PR (especially in mPDAC) it's still hard to be highly confident. Ipsen will be presenting data at ASCO GI Cancers on Jan 20th at 4:30pm ET (links below).<br /><br />https://imgur.com/a/ECkEjLe<br /><br />https://meetings.asco.org/meetings/2023-gastrointestinal-cancers-symposium/297/program-guide/search?q=NapoliAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-79457200553510678852022-12-22T16:45:51.986-06:002022-12-22T16:45:51.986-06:00I didn't see any news, no.I didn't see any news, no.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-72481312754055121002022-12-22T15:14:25.017-06:002022-12-22T15:14:25.017-06:00Also, I liked the MACK idea ADL posted above. Risk...Also, I liked the MACK idea ADL posted above. Risk seems to be mostly baked out. Grabbed some in mid to upper 10s the other day as I can’t find any reason for the dip other than maybe profit taking. ADL - have you seen anything else?EJLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-18576336577637038662022-12-22T15:12:44.732-06:002022-12-22T15:12:44.732-06:00Had a GTC at $7.9 on this for a while which finall...Had a GTC at $7.9 on this for a while which finally struck. Grabbed a bunch more at 7.3 right before the close. Didn’t see any news, did you?EJLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-59900327565933128882022-11-26T22:43:29.078-06:002022-11-26T22:43:29.078-06:00Ooh, thank you, Alex! Funny, I owned some Danakali...Ooh, thank you, Alex! Funny, I owned some Danakali and sold it earlier this year because I had no particular idea what would happen or when. Now to revisit!ADLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11578314123744054067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-85994933547469047262022-11-25T09:21:22.341-06:002022-11-25T09:21:22.341-06:00Thanks, MDC for the pointer. From that 10-K: “ The...Thanks, MDC for the pointer. From that 10-K: “ The net assets in liquidation at May 31, 2022 would result in liquidating distributions of $1.96 per unit in the Trust based on 31,300,837 common shares that were converted to units in the Trust on that date.”Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-47560939495320961672022-11-24T16:24:23.070-06:002022-11-24T16:24:23.070-06:00https://danakali.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/10...https://danakali.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/20221003_Term_Sheet_Asmara.pdf<br /><br />ADL, you may like this one, as a fellow tourist in spicy risk arbAlex Taussignoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-13077032984868099772022-11-22T08:42:47.709-06:002022-11-22T08:42:47.709-06:00https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/16...https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/16099/000162828022024293/lub-20220531.htm<br /><br />They did put out a 10-K by in September. I'm not sure if they're going to continue SEC reporting, there tends to be limited financial disclosures in liquidations once they go non-trading.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-10250637794309046892022-11-21T18:23:12.188-06:002022-11-21T18:23:12.188-06:00Anyone has any idea about what is happening with L...Anyone has any idea about what is happening with Luby's liquidation trust? Haven't heard anything for a while. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-90848922436281862012022-11-16T10:09:35.334-06:002022-11-16T10:09:35.334-06:00Agreed. Still taking a hit to book on operations, ...Agreed. Still taking a hit to book on operations, which they make up for with asset sales/repurchases. Chosen leverage metric (FWIW) low. More or less treading water, which in this market is a modest win. <br /><br />Some big bargains based on trailing, if not prospective, book in the levered smaller/lower-quality commercial RE loan space. Market not believing the marks. Have been looking at GPMT, though it's brain damage city. ADLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11578314123744054067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-33744735492071400352022-11-15T10:52:24.262-06:002022-11-15T10:52:24.262-06:00AAIC selling the rest of their SFRs, makes the sto...AAIC selling the rest of their SFRs, makes the story a little simpler, more dry powder for share repurchases, still saying all the right things.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-81459255058295532882022-11-10T14:43:20.842-06:002022-11-10T14:43:20.842-06:00Obv odds AND TIMING of approval. I mentally penci...Obv odds AND TIMING of approval. I mentally pencil in a year, though I doubt it's that long.ADLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11578314123744054067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-78631907147975274902022-11-10T14:41:38.508-06:002022-11-10T14:41:38.508-06:00Agree with all of that, AFAIK (main/closest milest...Agree with all of that, AFAIK (main/closest milestone will approximate NOLs, and they do have other potentially claimable credits). Small chance they also file in SCLC, which is good for ~$10 if approved--program was not a great success but may still be fileable/approvable based on response and safety. Very small odds of some 3rd indication being approved one day. Minor milestones from Elevation (I have not been following their development, TBH; quick glance says valuing the Elevation assets at a dollar would be generous) and cash on BS, which will likely be gone if they stick around. So odds of approval at your discount rate plus, say, a dollar will determine how good a buy this is. Better buy in the $11s, obviously!ADLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11578314123744054067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-79687590553456310242022-11-10T13:51:05.064-06:002022-11-10T13:51:05.064-06:00The remaining variables on MACK are 1) FDA approva...The remaining variables on MACK are 1) FDA approval, sounds likely; 2) timing of FDA approval, they have fast track designation, but how to handicap timing?; 3) tax leakage, peeked at the 10-K, they had $209.5MM of NOLs, so the Ipsen proceeds above that would get taxed? Do I have that about right?MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-20462616875981772232022-11-10T10:08:18.454-06:002022-11-10T10:08:18.454-06:00I didn't already know about CMRX, does sound i...I didn't already know about CMRX, does sound interesting, thanks! I owned MACK a long time ago, sold when they raised capital and thus diluted the CVR like payment, need to revisit with the recent news.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-30891320022224736812022-11-10T08:48:47.708-06:002022-11-10T08:48:47.708-06:00You probably already know about it, but CMRX maybe...You probably already know about it, but CMRX maybe-interesting with activist pushing for shareholder return (not sure how to handicap odds here, but gut says sub-50% Rubric gets what it wants). And MACK now a very interesting lower-risk setup; have a bunch and will probably add.ADLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11578314123744054067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-76880537022648173772022-11-03T22:03:05.638-05:002022-11-03T22:03:05.638-05:00https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1332551/00...https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1332551/000156459022036618/0001564590-22-036618-index.htm<br /><br />Quarter seemed pretty boring, which for a lender is great. One comment I found interesting on the earnings call, they're buying back as much stock as they're able to under exchange liquidity rules.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-21620678261282388062022-10-27T18:06:46.537-05:002022-10-27T18:06:46.537-05:00For what it's worth, I think both AJX and SACH...For what it's worth, I think both AJX and SACH might be interesting given your familiarity and their expertise with distressed/formerly-distressed/hard-money assets. Obviously small-ticket finance REITs are super-blackboxy and time-consuming to look at (and AJX is mostly resi, too), but they are at least very far from plain vanilla and might have some opportunities in conditions that cause others to struggle.<br /><br />And this definitely isn't your bag, but it's sort of amazing: USEA, a super-tiny Greek-ship spinoff from a tiny Greek-ship company, recently did a $26 million share-and-warrant offering to pay for the equity portion of an $80 million 4-ship fleet expansion. <br /><br />Share prices tanked, even in the face of higher tanker rates, and the co turned around and bought back 40% of the shares it had just sold for $6 million, announced a further buyback, and sold 2 of the 4 fleet expansion ships for $62 million. This is all over the course of a few months.<br /><br />It's Greek shippers so I can't imagine it ends with anything other than dilution and heartbreak, but it's amazing opportunistic trading. If they keep it up (I doubt it!) they'll be Teledyne.ADLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11578314123744054067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-86628793976748142432022-10-27T09:25:14.343-05:002022-10-27T09:25:14.343-05:00Thanks! I think you mentioned this one before bec...Thanks! I think you mentioned this one before because I have it on my watchlist. Even though management is the same, at least its internally managed. I'm more familiar with commercial real estate credit assets vs. residential in my real life, but AAIC certainly does rhyme, I'll spend some time on it.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.com