tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post8734703746752103557..comments2024-03-28T07:17:13.573-05:00Comments on Clark Street Value: Verso Corp: Bankruptcy Reorg, Cheap ValuationMDChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comBlogger49125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-14986952872857018832017-10-21T17:18:54.251-05:002017-10-21T17:18:54.251-05:00This is late but you described PJT as a Blackrock ...This is late but you described PJT as a Blackrock spin-off when it's actually a Blackstone spin-off.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-24367732927895581002017-03-27T10:33:41.492-05:002017-03-27T10:33:41.492-05:00Not quite yet but i have feeling this could end up...Not quite yet but i have feeling this could end up being worthwhile to keep on radar and look for an inflection point. no namehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01180488577665672291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-26876072066723293772017-03-27T08:32:49.207-05:002017-03-27T08:32:49.207-05:00I haven't been paying close attention but have...I haven't been paying close attention but haven't deleted it from my watchlist, I agree with you on the strong dollar comment, but the Howard Marks comment? Does that mean you're considering a jump back in at these prices?MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-56551062635260566662017-03-23T09:16:55.846-05:002017-03-23T09:16:55.846-05:00Hi MDC.
painful as it may be,you still watching V...Hi MDC.<br /><br />painful as it may be,you still watching VRS? I imagine that a strong Dollar will continue to whack its business. but as howard marks says, its not what you buy, its what you pay for what you buy that determines succes or failure in an investment... no namehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01180488577665672291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-58832432819720772532017-01-31T08:27:11.090-06:002017-01-31T08:27:11.090-06:00You are absolutely correct! and given the traject...You are absolutely correct! and given the trajectory of interest rates, the dollar will get worse (stronger). really bad news for VRS <br /><br />i have not looked at CNTE thanks for pointing it out no namehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01180488577665672291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-70620245919992066422017-01-27T09:29:54.542-06:002017-01-27T09:29:54.542-06:00I would think the strong dollar more than cancels ...I would think the strong dollar more than cancels out an import tariff?<br /><br />Speaking of post re-org equities, have you looked at CNTE? I've had a couple people mention it to me recently and have been looking at this week. Much of the former assets of Alpha Natural Resources.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-30596169031982842372017-01-26T16:12:47.560-06:002017-01-26T16:12:47.560-06:00MDC.
Are you thinking what I am thinking about V...MDC. <br /><br />Are you thinking what I am thinking about Verso vis a vis this import tax proposal and how it could impact Verso? Imports are killing this company...<br /><br />;)no namehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01180488577665672291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-46372321954927686992016-11-30T21:38:48.879-06:002016-11-30T21:38:48.879-06:00Wow! Definitely time to buy. Year end bond sellers...Wow! Definitely time to buy. Year end bond sellers and panic seller on a story no one here has caught on to given 100% of holders wanted out of this stock by the end of the year given they need 90+ to recover their bond losses. Time to buy = very soon. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-26891705132376379782016-11-05T10:30:12.760-05:002016-11-05T10:30:12.760-05:00To close this loop, I sold this week at $5.40.To close this loop, I sold this week at $5.40.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-27830001094665289092016-11-02T09:20:36.207-05:002016-11-02T09:20:36.207-05:00I want to believe you're overreacting, but you...I want to believe you're overreacting, but you're probably spot on, seems like every year I make one bad mistake, VRS was 2016's.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-69414315181520273842016-11-01T13:55:20.740-05:002016-11-01T13:55:20.740-05:00sorry, I meant not oil or natural gas cosorry, I meant not oil or natural gas cono namehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01180488577665672291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-46150258243511472422016-11-01T13:54:08.074-05:002016-11-01T13:54:08.074-05:00I imagine that you have bigger and better things t...I imagine that you have bigger and better things to focus on but going back to Verso..<br /><br />I have come to the conclusion that management of this company are outright liars and manufactured misleading projections to push the bankruptcy through. This is most likely why the CEO is "retiring" .. it rarely happens this close after a Chapter 11 process that you see a CEO go without any replacement already in place.<br /><br />Also, how could things have deteriorated so fast? This is a oil or natural gas. Paper has been in the shitter for a while but pricing is not quite so volatile that these guys were taken by surprise.<br /><br />I am not sure if there are any lessons to be learned here - 100% of the time, we assume mgmt will not commit fraud. Sometimes shit just happens.no namehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01180488577665672291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-88054780138984351442016-10-25T17:09:27.864-05:002016-10-25T17:09:27.864-05:00CEO is taking a while but not the end of the world...CEO is taking a while but not the end of the world - unless - all the distressed debt guys are out or sold out most of their stake.<br /><br />If they are still in (and we will know more when 13Fs are done filing) they will protect their stake and get a decent CEO. If out, this will be a rudderless ship unfortunately. If they were going to promote anyone from within, it would have been done by now. <br /><br />The stock has lost so much value already, how low is it gonna go seriously.no namehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01180488577665672291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-66307821606427724092016-10-25T16:26:58.530-05:002016-10-25T16:26:58.530-05:00I haven't either, still own a (now) small posi...I haven't either, still own a (now) small position in it. VRS could be a tax loss candidate for me soon, but definitely a lesson in showing more patience/caution as these companies emerge from bankruptcy.<br /><br />Surprised there's no CEO announcement yet, what to make of that? Could delay any kitchen sink type quarter as you mentioned earlier in the thread.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-41517234698290662062016-10-25T15:30:32.251-05:002016-10-25T15:30:32.251-05:00I Havent taken my eye off of this one... It will b...I Havent taken my eye off of this one... It will be interesting to see the owners list when 13Fs are all filed with the SEC.no namehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01180488577665672291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-24421193185307226232016-09-07T09:51:06.148-05:002016-09-07T09:51:06.148-05:00I've noticed that too, most likely just trying...I've noticed that too, most likely just trying to reshape their image, time will tell if they're actually able to reshape their business as well.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-46039852885454250662016-09-07T08:46:00.450-05:002016-09-07T08:46:00.450-05:00they have been issuing press releases highlighting...they have been issuing press releases highlighting new non-printing/publishing products. would be helpful to understand the capacity/revenue/profit contribution from these markets!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-49075429167359224232016-09-06T15:26:01.583-05:002016-09-06T15:26:01.583-05:00Unfortunately I don't know the counter argumen...Unfortunately I don't know the counter argument but common sense would tell you that pension should flow through inc stmt. <br /><br />I saw the CFO transaction - quite meaningful. <br /><br />Timing aside, this stock does have quite a few potential catalysts that may or may not be overwhelmed by business fundamentals. I imagine that whoever they hire as CEO will have every motivation to low ball numbers/ests. until his or her stock and options are in place. So that is something to think about...no namehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01180488577665672291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-70462328523322923022016-09-06T08:31:24.515-05:002016-09-06T08:31:24.515-05:00You make a good point, what's the counter argu...You make a good point, what's the counter argument? Why did FASB decide against it?<br /><br />As an aside, the CFO bought a decent chunk of stock last week. I'm still holding for now, it was a tiny position that's gotten a lot smaller.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-7183912274964633292016-09-04T08:37:29.561-05:002016-09-04T08:37:29.561-05:00This situation points out a big flaw in GAAP accou...This situation points out a big flaw in GAAP accounting. They changed the rules to account for unfunded pension liability in that now firms have to show it on the balance sheet (whereas in the past, it was in the footnotes). <br /><br />However, no impact on the income statement which doesn;t make any sense? Unfunded pension is nothing more than debt "in drag". Just as cost of debt flows through the income statement (interest expense), I see no reason why pension contribution shouldn't. no namehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01180488577665672291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-63497855663021257732016-08-29T11:16:15.518-05:002016-08-29T11:16:15.518-05:00The problem is that EBITDA margins have declined t...The problem is that EBITDA margins have declined to mid single digits from almost teens in the last 2 years. And at the current run-rate, the EBITDA will not be sufficient to cover capex + interest + pension contributions. So Verso will be cash constrained unless the business picks up / they come up with huge restructuring measures (which come at a cost as well).<br /><br />Synergies won't help I dont think. At the Q3'15 results, they were saying that synergies on a run-rate basis were already running at close to 90%. I would guess that synergies are already fully reflected in the current results.<br /><br />Operationally, its hard to see what they can do in a fixed cost business where volumes are structurally declining.<br /><br />So the remaining lever is price. This has been hurting them due to strong USD. But I guess it could swing back the other way. Verso then effectively becomes a high beta call option on pricing improving.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-15461798621156071002016-08-24T09:21:29.684-05:002016-08-24T09:21:29.684-05:00Good point, but I believe they did guide to some d...Good point, but I believe they did guide to some downtime in 2H16 at two of their mills that would impact P&L "$10-$12M unfavorable for remainder of the year", these seem more like regularly scheduled maintenance than one time items we should ignore?MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-49455784868689635372016-08-24T06:27:08.675-05:002016-08-24T06:27:08.675-05:00didn't they take significant market related do...didn't they take significant market related downtime in 2H15 (~$35MM)? No downtime in 2H16 should help offset the price/vol impacts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-47107995962681368832016-08-23T21:38:39.073-05:002016-08-23T21:38:39.073-05:00I think it's a combination of the two, but you...I think it's a combination of the two, but you're right, it's hard to really tell and I should have shown more patience before buying. I wasn't actively investing in 2001-2002, started a couple years later but I bet you're right, the opportunity set as gotten smaller.MDChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10679835609782815537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2080506270244832638.post-11997949504379826682016-08-23T14:37:56.616-05:002016-08-23T14:37:56.616-05:00OK - thanks. It funny, right? We can see this st...OK - thanks. It funny, right? We can see this stock moving down and then it makes you wonder, what is taking place? PR dynamics or fundamental issues that became evident during Q2 results? No one knows for sure and it may be a combo of the two. In any event, I can tell you this much - that post reorgs of 2001-2002 cycle were the last real deal. too many hedgies chasing the same crap has made everything efficient, perhaps over-efficient and we need this HF space to completely blow itself out of the water if we are to make real money in future. no namehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01180488577665672291noreply@blogger.com