HomeStreet: Stressed West Coast Small-Regional Bank, Pursuing a Sale

HomeStreet (HMST) ($180MM market cap) is a small regional lender based in Seattle that flew a bit too close to the sun in 2021-2022 and is now facing increased borrowing costs as they rely heavily on wholesale funding (loan-to-deposit ratio above 110%).  Their net-interest margin has been squeezed, as a result, they're a barely profitable enterprise despite minimal credit issues (ROE currently ~3%, versus 11.5% in 2022).  I first came across HomeStreet after it was briefly mentioned on the Value After Hours podcast by the team at Seawolf Capital.  Last night it moved up my watchlist because Bloomberg reported that HomeStreet is pursuing a sale, but also open to an asset sale or capital raise.  The speed of these troubled bank tie-ups seems to be increasing and regulators appear more open to mergers (BANC/PACW is guiding to a quick 6-month close).  I would expect this process will have an expedited timeline.  The simple/quick thesis that would make HomeStreet attractive to a buyer capable of fixing their funding problem:

1. HMST trades for 1/3rd book value (~$9/share versus tangible book value at $27.50/share), despite having virtually no held-to-maturity portfolio and thus far, minimal issues in their loan book.  The tangible book number does include -$5.37/share of unrealized losses in the available-for-sale portfolio that will eventually burn off too.
2. HMST has an attractive footprint across Seattle, southern California, Portland and a few branches in Hawaii where the deposit market is dominated by local players.  A larger regional bank could come in and realize significant synergies, especially in the current environment where regulators/politicians are once again more worried about shoring up the financial system than saving jobs or blocking branch closings.
3. HMST is one of ~20 banks that has a license to originate and service multi-family loans under Fannie Mae's Delegated Underwriting and Servicing ("DUS") program.  This is an attractive franchise as Fannie Mae bears 2/3rds of the credit risk on a pro-rata basis while the lender maintains the relationship and associated servicing fees.

Other thoughts/risks:

• 36% of their loan portfolio is multi-family lending in California.  Multi-family has held up reasonably well, we're starting to see some cracks in transitional bridge loans that mREITs fund, but too early to tell if troubles will work their way up to the MF CRE bank debt.  Typically, a transitional bridge loan is taken out with long-term financing by a bank when a property is stabilized.
• Uninsured deposits were down to 7% of total deposits on 6/30, from 14% on 3/31, making a bank run here less worrisome (no venture or start up deposits), this is more a zombie bank that can't turn a profit or originate new loans.  HomeStreet is currently limiting lending to more niche floating rate products like construction loan and HELOCs.
• Capital allocation has been exceptionally poor, HomeStreet has been a big buyer of their own shares in recent years, typically at prices well above book value. In 2022 alone, HomeStreet bought back 7.3% of their shares at an average price of $50.97/share.
• HMST was recently kicked out of the S&P 600 small cap index which could have caused some forced selling pressure on the shares.  They also slashed the dividend significantly in April.

When a stock trades this cheap on a tangible book basis, the buyer can swoop it up for a huge discount, let's say 50% of book and still would be a 50% gain for the HMST equity.  I'm guessing this will be a stock-for-stock deal, so the realized premium might not be that big.  I bought some shares this morning.  Any other banks that need to make a deal?

Disclosure: I own shares of HMST