WMIH Corp: KKR Controlled NOL Shell

A simple and brief investment idea today, it's been teased and mentioned a few times in earlier posts on other NOL companies.  WMIH Corp (WMIH) is the remaining shell of the former subprime lender Washington Mutual which became the largest bank failure before most of its assets were sold via the FDIC to JPMorgan Chase in September 2008.  What remains in the old corporate shell is approximately $6B in net operating losses, a small reinsurance business that's in runoff, and $600+MM in cash set aside for a future acquisition.

KKR is effectively in control of the company via the $600MM convertible series B preferred stock issued in January of this year, the proceeds of which are in an escrow account.  KKR is one of the original leveraged buyout shops and gives WMIH Corp access to deal flow and an experience management team.  SPACs and "platform companies" are a current rage, add that with the M&A reputation of KKR and any WMIH acquisition could be met with investor enthusiasm.

Valuation

WMIH Corp has cash of $670MM to use for an acquisition, $600MM in escrow and $70MM at the corporate level (I'm ignoring the cash and investments inside the runoff reinsurance company).

Let's assume KKR will just use the escrow funds and leave the $70MM for liquidity, they could make an acquisition using half equity, half debt for a $1.2B operating company generating $200MM in pre-tax earnings.  Using a 10% discount rate and assuming 3% annual growth rate in the pre-tax earnings the NOL could be worth an NPV of ~$750MM.  That's probably on the low side, 1) KKR will likely make a larger initial acquisition and raise capital via a rights offering (similar to GRBK, PARR, RELY) to bring forward the NOL value, and 2) there will be additional bolt-on acquisitions over time that will increase earnings at a faster clip than 3%.  But to be conservative, let's use the $750MM value for the NOL.

Assumes 3% earnings growth rate

WMIH Corp has also granted warrants for 61.4 million shares at an average exercise price of $1.38 per share which will raise nearly $85MM.  Add that with the $670MM in cash, plus the $750MM NPV of the NOL, totals $1.5B for WMIH.

The current share count doesn't include the dilution of the various warrants and convertibles in WMIH Corp's capital structure.  KKR's series B preferred stock will convert to equity at the time of an acquisition at a price of $2.25 creating 266,666,666 shares, add in the 1 million shares of Series A convertible preferred stock and the warrants will add another 61.4 million shares to the current outstanding 202.3 million, or a total of 531.4 million shares.  Using the $1.5B valuation number, that works out to $2.82 per share versus about $2.50 today.  So you're merely getting an okay deal today for the shell, but the incentives and potential leverage in an acquisition are such that there could be substantial value creation once a deal is commenced.

Risks/Other:

• KKR is unable to find a suitable acquisition, pays the wrong price, or just simply takes too long creating an opportunity cost for investors.
• At the time of an acquisition, there will probably a rights offering, so keep that in mind when sizing a position.  Trading around deal announcement, rights offering, and deal closings have been extremely volatile in these NOL shells, so even when there is good news, could be a wild ride.

Disclosure: I own shares of WMIH