NexPoint Residential's current portfolio includes 38 multi-family properties containing 11,816 apartment units, with concentration in strong growing markets like Atlanta and Dallas. The initial plan is to target class B & C properties and add value through rehab/redevelopment of the properties. Larger REITs typically focus on big class A trophy type assets as its more economical, moves the needle, makes for better investor presentation materials, and immediately adds to AFFO and other metrics that REIT investors direct their focus.
I found the below slide interesting from NexPoint Residential's investor presentation, obviously these kind of comparisons are cherry picked a bit, but two things stood out to me that you don't typically see in externally managed REITs: insider ownership, and a willingness to be taken over.
Highland Capital (technically an affiliate) will earn a management fee/expense reimbursement amount capped at 1.5% annual of the assets, not the equity, so there's naturally a lean towards levering up the portfolio. The interesting part is there is no incentive payment and there's only a two year initial contract period that can be cancelled anytime after with 60 days notice, unlike others where the external entity is essentially tied permanently to their manager. That doesn't appear to be the case here and opens up the possibility of a takeover down the road which would likely be very accretive to the acquirer given NXRT's higher cap rates and ability to strip out the 1.5% management fees.
Additionally, management has acquired 11.5% ownership of NexPoint Residential and indicated in their presentation they "will continue to be a natural buyer" and "management does not intend to sell shares or reduce its ownership stake", not typical statements you'd see in an externally managed vehicle that was just there to generate fat fees.
So what's it potentially worth? Management is initially guiding to FFO of $1.12/share, at yesterday's closing price of $13.70, that's a 12.2x forward multiple, well below peers:
NexPoint Residential is clearly smaller, more leveraged, focused on lower quality assets, and doesn't have the track record of its peers, but over the next year as the platform grows out and establishes itself in the market I'd expect the valuation gap to close. The bottom few like MAA, HME, PPS, and AEC are probably the best comparables for NXRT, at a 15x FFO multiple it's worth $16.80/share or 23% higher than yesterday's close. Not super exciting, especially in a potentially rising interest rate environment where cap rates could widen, but that also doesn't take into account asset and FFO growth which NXRT should be able to do in the next 12 months.
NexPoint Credit Strategies Fund (NHF)
A smaller opportunity might exist in NHF, the CEF parent to NXRT, after the spinoff NHF committed to maintaining its previous dividend, essentially hiking the dividend 38% given the smaller NAV base. NHF's strategy is to provide a credit hedge fund like offering with monthly dividend payments and liquidity, their performance despite the almost 2% management fee has been strong, yet it's hovered at a 10-12% discount to NAV for a few years (one reason they did the spinoff). Now that the yield is higher, and the spinoff has lifted some of the funds more illiquid assets from the portfolio, the discount to NAV should decline slightly. As of yesterday's close, its trading at a 12% discount to NAV with a 9.5% yield.
Disclosure: I own shares of NXRT, NHF (likely selling NHF in the next 1-2 weeks)
I also am layering into a good position on NXRT and have a very small position in NHF. I also specialize in spinoffs so I am pleased to find your blog.ReplyDelete
NXRT is an unique REIT in it buys neglected apartments, rehabs them and increases the rent (4 year pay back on the rehab). The price is decent and the yield good.
I figure the value to be ~18.50 (1.23 x 15) which would be a 4.5% yield - 33% upside from here
They issue great reports. The 1st Quarter Supplement contains very useful information. Exactly what an informed shareholder would desire. Page 10 has a semi-itemized NOI breakout with estimated cap rate ranges to assist in determining NAV. After subtracting debt they total between 15.71 and 19.61 a share with the average being $17.66. Other calculations have results within this range. Also insiders have made open market purchases totaling several $MM. I continued to buy a full position in this stock for my portfolio. Has many earmarks of a Greenblatt situation.ReplyDelete
Thanks for the comments. That is a great presentation, highly transparent, likely the first step in trying to raise some capital and get eye balls looking at the company. It seems like I did low ball this one in my write-up, high probability it's close to that $18-19 range you mention by year end. Interest rates shouldn't be too much of a concern given the shorter term lease structure of apartments and their Class B target market.Delete
Atlanta is really strong right now:ReplyDelete